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地理学报  2003 

近50余年来南海西沙海域冬季风强度的变率

DOI: 10.11821/xb200305010, PP. 721-726

Keywords: 珊瑚,δ18O值,冬季风,南海

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Abstract:

采用南海西沙永兴岛海洋观察站1958~1997年12~2月实测的北东向冬季风风速的平均值作为冬季风强度指数(WMI),与南海北缘滨珊瑚的相应年月份的实测δ18O平均值进行相关分析,得到线性回归方程WMI(m/s)=-4.913-2.138δ18O(‰),r=0.83,n=40。在计算(后报)所得的1944~1997年代际变化序列中,WMI在40~60年代呈下降趋势,70年代略有上升,而80~90年代又呈下降趋势。在年际变化序列中,WMI呈显著的下降趋势,所得线性回归方程为WMI=79.67-0.0377Year,r=0.68,n=54。由斜率看出,WMI每10年平均下降约0.4m/s。用Daniell功率谱法分析,近54年来WMI的变化存在2.5~7年的周期,与季风的QBO周期为2~2.4年,以及ENSO活动的3~8年周期密切相关。WMI连续下降的趋势是与全球持续变暖相映,南海海域冬季风强度的变化受到了全球变化的制约。

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