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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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时空序列预测分析方法在华北旱涝预测中的应用
DOI: 10.11821/xb20037s016, PP. 132-137
Keywords: 时间序列,华北,旱涝
Abstract:
论述场时间序列(时空序列)分析问题的提出以及理论基础，并在此基础上，根据状态空间重构理论和嵌入定理，参考单变量时间序列状态空间动力学预报模式，给出场时间序列的动力学预报方法的基本思想和预报思路，并尝试应用于我国华北地区5年、10年和20年尺度旱涝的长期预测试验中。初步的预测结果表明，场时间序列方法对其有一定的预测能力；我国华北地区5年及20年的旱涝等级为正常,近10年的旱涝等级为正常略涝。
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