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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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多代理人系统在商业街消费者行为模拟中的应用———以上海南京东路为例
DOI: 10.11821/xb200904007, PP. 445-455
Keywords: 多代理人系统,NetLogo,消费者行为,决策模型,模拟,商业街,南京东
Abstract:
用模型方法研究消费者行为经历了从集合模型到个体模型的过程。随着计算机技术的进步,近十余年来多代理人技术得到了长足的发展。当前,将消费者个体行为模型和多代理人系统相结合来模拟商业街消费者活动,已经成为相关研究和实践领域的前沿方法。其主要优点在于能够使相关人员以单个消费者为基础,整合复杂的相关因素,预测整体或局部商业空间的动态运行效果,作为规划开发的依据。本文介绍由笔者基于NetLogo开发的一个模拟商业街消费者行为的多代理人模拟平台,包括系统的建构和模拟的流程。该模拟系统的核心由四个基于有限理性原理的消费者决策模型构成回家决策、方向选择决策、休息决策、商店光顾决策。然后应用这个平台于研究上海南京东路消费者行为的实例。该数据收集于2007年,现场记录了消费者在南京东路的活动过程,并被用于拟合行为模型。将模拟的代理人个体行为集合后,于三方面同观察到的消费者实际行为作比较,包括从事不同活动的消费者数量随时间的变化、在各街道段中活动的消费者数量随时间的变化,以及单个商店中的消费者人次和延时，同时分析了模拟中的问题。结果显示该模拟平台总体上能够较好地预测消费者集合行为。
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