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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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近500年南极涛动指数重建及其变率分析
DOI: 10.11821/xb201003001, PP. 259-269
Keywords: 南极涛动,重建,代用资料,年际—年代际变率
Abstract:
南极涛动是南半球大气环流的主要模态,在多种尺度上对南半球及北半球部分地区的气候系统产生重要影响。在对树轮、珊瑚、冰芯等多种代用资料进行挑选与主成分分析的基础上，重建了公元1500年以来南半球夏季(当年12月-次年2月)的南极涛动指数。重建序列的解释方差(r2)、误差减少量(RE)平均值分别为59.9%、0.47，较高的r2、RE表明重建具有了较高的可信度；而整体呈减少趋势的标准误差(SE)表明代用资料的增多可以减少重建序列的不确定性。重建结果与其它研究给出的南极涛动指数有着较好的一致性。重建序列的功率谱分析表明，过去500多年南极涛动年际变率突出的周期有2.4a、2.6a、6.3a，年代际变率突出的周期有24.1a、37.6a，均达到95%显著性水平。进一步的小波分析表明南极涛动在不同时间尺度上的变率及其周期有着随时间而演变的特征。
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