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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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我国夏玉米潜在种植分布区的气候适宜性研究
DOI: 10.11821/xb201111001, PP. 1443-1450
Keywords: 夏玉米,潜在种植分布,主导气候因子,气候适宜性,最大熵(MaxEnt),模型,中国
Abstract:
根据我国188个夏玉米农业气象观测站资料与1971-2000年10km×10km空间分辨率的气候资料,结合国家层次和年尺度筛选出的影响我国玉米种植分布的潜在气候指标,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术,构建了我国夏玉米潜在种植分布与气候因子关系模型,研究了影响我国夏玉米潜在种植分布的主导气候因子及其气候适宜性。结果表明,影响我国夏玉米潜在种植分布的主导气候因子有无霜期、年平均温度、≥10oC积温持续天数、≥0oC积温、≥10oC积温、最冷月平均温度、最热月平均温度、年降水；采用夏玉米存在概率这一综合反映各主导因子作用的指标,将我国夏玉米潜在种植分布区划分为4个等级最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区,并阐述了各气候适宜区的气候特征。研究结果可为夏玉米种植的科学布局及制定应对气候变化政策提供参考。
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