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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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基于多变量概率分析的珠江流域干旱特征研究
DOI: 10.11821/xb201201009, PP. 83-92
Keywords: 干旱,干旱风险,Copula函数,第二重现期,珠江
Abstract:
根据珠江流域42个站点1960-2005年的46年日降水资料,以6个月尺度的SPI值表征珠江流域干旱情况。通过Mann-Kendall趋势分析研究了珠江流域干旱时间演变特征,同时基于多变量Copula函数,在定义的两种不同干旱情景下,根据两变量联合重现期及其对应的第二重现期,比较性地研究了珠江流域的干旱风险。研究结果表明(1)珠江流域西部有变旱的趋势而东部有变湿润的趋势,其中显著的变旱趋势集中在11、12、1月,显著的变湿趋势集中在6、7月。同时除个别站点外,干旱历时和干旱严重程度趋势不显著;(2)珠江流域整体上干旱风险较大,东部要比西部干旱风险高。珠江流域内发生长历时干旱时,干旱严重程度也往往很大,对干旱风险管理很不利。在发生严重程度的干旱时,珠江流域东部的干旱高风险区域增加,威胁珠江三角洲地区水资源安全;(3)由于第二重现期综合考虑了各种情况,可能第二重现期对干旱风险分析的结果更稳健一些。
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