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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应
DOI: 10.11821/xb201201008, PP. 71-82
Keywords: 气候变化,径流,SWAT,(Soil,and,Water,Assessment,Tool),Mann-Kendall,趋势检测,三江源区
Abstract:
利用水循环模型、统计检测、对比分析等手段对三江源区水循环过程进行了分析,模拟和检测了1958-2005年黄河源区出口唐乃亥站、长江源区直门达站、澜沧江源区昌都站汛期、非汛期和年径流过程的变化趋势。在此基础上,检测CSIRO和NCAR两种气候模式A1B和B1排放情景下未来2010-2039年源区出口断面的径流演变趋势,对比分析了气候变化的影响。研究表明过去48年三江源区出口唐乃亥站年径流和非汛期径流过程呈显著减少趋势,而直门达和昌都站径流过程变化趋势并不显著。这将导致对黄河中下游地区的水资源补给显著减少,加剧黄河流域水资源短缺。气候变化背景下,未来30年黄河源区径流量与现状相比有所减少,尤其是在非汛期,将持续加剧黄河中下游流域水资源短缺的现象。长江源区径流量将呈增加趋势,而且远远高于现状流量,尤其是在汛期,长江中下游地区防洪形势严峻。而澜沧江源区未来30年径流量均高于现状流量,但汛期和年径流变化并不显著,而非汛期径流变化存在不确定性,CSIRO模式B1情景显著减小,而NCAR模式B1情景显著增加。气候变化对长江源区径流影响最显著,黄河源区其次,而澜沧江源区最小。
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