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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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黑龙江省冷害对水稻产量的影响
DOI: 10.11821/xb201209007, PP. 1223-1232
Keywords: 水稻生产,黑龙江省,低温冷害
Abstract:
以黑龙江省为例,比较了在大尺度范围内、利用传统的站点平均法以及基于格点水稻密度分布的泰森多边形面积权重法所得的两种省级水稻气象数据差异,并分析了1960-2009年内,不同时间尺度上温度和降水的变化趋势特点。针对当地水稻低温冷害频发及其危害严重的实际情况,对比研究了气象行业标准(QX/T101-2009)和国家标准中有关低温冷害的指标定义,以及国际上较通用的有效负积温算法(GDDn-)这三种指标在反映黑龙江省水稻冷害事件上的能力,结果表明气象行业标准可以较好地反映延期型冷害对水稻的影响,而GDD指标在反映障碍型冷害上均优于气象行业及国家标准。利用时间序列模型对包含延迟型和障碍型两种冷害影响的黑龙江省水稻产量进行拟合,回归方程的解释能力可达92%(p<0.05)。本研究定量得出了人为因素和气象因素对黑龙江省水稻生产的影响分别占87.2%和12.8%的结论,并检测出近年来水稻抽穗开花期障碍型冷害的波动增加趋势,为明确今后低温冷害的防御重点提供科学参考。
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