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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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未来气候变化对我国南方水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响评估
DOI: 10.11821/xb201211002, PP. 1451-1460
Keywords: 气候变化,水稻,季节性干旱,影响,水分供需指数,VIC模型
Abstract:
研究我国水稻主产区季节性干旱受未来气候变化的影响,对调整水稻种植布局、提高水稻生产适应气候变化能力具有重要意义。本文通过对比时间跨度为1981-2030年水稻生产可用水量和季节性干旱的时空分布和干旱程度,得出气候变化对未来我国水稻主产区季节性干旱有显著影响。主要结论有2001-2030年(对照期)与1980-2000年(基准期)对比,(1)早稻和晚稻生长季可用水量均值增加了10%以上,中稻生长季可用水量保持不变。同时,中稻和晚稻的生长季可用水量的空间分布更加均匀,表明由于气候变化的影响,水稻主产区水稻生长季可用水量从整体上会更加充沛、空间分布会更加均匀,有利于缓解季节性干旱的发生。(2)水稻的季节性干旱均呈下降趋势,早稻季节性干旱减少1.25万km2,中稻季节性干旱减少8.00万km2,特别是晚稻季节性干旱减少25万km2,几乎占晚稻种植面积的20%。表明由于气候变化的影响,水稻主产区水稻季节性干旱总体趋于缓解,特别是晚稻季节性干旱问题有明显改善。(3)通过建立水文循环过程中可用水量与作物生长季需水量之间的关系,构建的基于分布式水文模型的水分供需指数(WSDI)适用于评估未来气候对水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响。
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