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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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中国能源安全评价及时空演进特征
DOI: 10.11821/xb201212005, PP. 1634-1644
Keywords: 能源安全,评价模型,时空演进特征,中国
Abstract:
采用近20年能源经济数据,从能源供应稳定性与使用安全性两个方面构建中国能源安全评价模型,借助因子分析、ArcGIS空间分析技术、情景分析方法,对中国能源安全时空演进特征展开研究。结果表明①近20年来,中国能源安全呈一小一大倒“U”型变化趋势,且目前处于大倒“U”型下降阶段；②3种情景下,区域能源安全时空演进存在明显差异。情景一区域能源供应稳定形势显著改善,能源供应脆弱区在空间上向“S”型演进,能源供应稳定区在空间上向“Y”型演进；情景二能源使用安全形势迅速恶化,使用安全与供应稳定性在空间上呈倒置状态；情景三从2008年中国区域能源安全格局来看,中国区域能源安全区(次强与强区)主要分布在黄河中游、西北、西南和东北地区,而能源安全脆弱区(次弱和弱区)则主要分布在沿海地区。
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