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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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近50年中国温带季风区植物花期春季霜冻风险变化
DOI: 10.11821/xb201305002, PP. 593-601
Keywords: 气候变化,物候,始花期,霜冻风险,终霜冻日
Abstract:
中国温带季风区是我国重要的农业区,春季霜冻常对该地区的植物造成严重的损害。本文利用“中国物候观测网”12个站点的物候观测数据和对应站点气象资料,应用物候模型方法,对1963-2009年各站点的霜冻频次和多种木本植物的始花期进行了分析,并对植物在花期的霜冻风险进行了评估。结果表明,1963-2009年,研究区内东北地区和华北地区的始花期分别以-1.52天/10a(P<0.01)和-2.22天/10a(P<0.01)的速度提前。在同一时段,研究区春季霜冻日数显著减少,终霜冻日显著提前。综合考虑花期和霜冻频次的变化,霜冻风险指数,即木本植物花期受到霜冻的物种数占调查总数的百分比,在东北地区以-0.37%/10a的速度降低(不显著);而在华北地区,霜冻风险指数则以-1.80%/10a的速度显著下降(P<0.01)。这表明过去半个世纪研究区植物花期霜冻风险在降低,且存在显著的区域差异。该结论可为农业和森林管理者制订应对春季霜冻害的决策提供参考。
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