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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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过去2000年冷暖变化的基本特征与主要暖期
DOI: 10.11821/xb201305001, PP. 579-592
Keywords: 过去2000年,北半球,中国,温度变化,百年际暖期
Abstract:
根据近年国内外相关研究结果,分析了北半球与中国过去2000年冷暖变化的阶段性,辨识了百年尺度暖期的起讫年代及其与20世纪温暖程度的差别。结果表明(1)最近新建的多数北半球温度变化序列显示公元1-270年温暖;271-840年冷暖相间,但总体偏冷;841-1290年温暖;1291-1910年寒冷;1911年以后再次转为温暖;这些冷暖阶段虽分别与Lamb指出的罗马暖期(约公元前1世纪-4世纪中期)、黑暗时代冷期(约4世纪末-10世纪前期)、中世纪暖期(约10世纪中期-13世纪末)、小冰期(约15-19世纪)以及20世纪增暖大致对应,但各阶段的起讫时间与Lamb确定的时段存在一定差别。(2)尽管过去2000年冷暖变化过程及其变幅大小在中国境内各个区域间并不完全一致,但从全国平均看,中国与北半球百年尺度的冷暖波动阶段基本一致,仅起讫年代存在一定差异;其中公元1-200年、551-760年、941-1300年及20世纪气候相对温暖,其他时段则相对寒冷。(3)多数序列显示中世纪期间北半球的温暖程度至少与20世纪相当。中国941-1300年间的最暖百年和最暖30年(暖峰)的温度也略高于20世纪,551-760年间的最暖百年与20世纪基本相当,但1-200年间最暖百年的温暖程度则较20世纪略低。
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