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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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1960-2010年中国西南地区0℃层高度变化特征
, PP. 994-1006
Keywords: 0,℃层高度,Mann-Kendall检验,西南地区,R/S分析,空间差异
Abstract:
使用西南地区1960-2010年14探空站高空气象资料和对应的14个地面观测站的5个气温要素和2个降水要素资料,通过Mann-Kendall检验,线性趋势法、相关分析法及R/S分析方法,分析了西南地区0℃层高度的时间变化特征和空间分布情况以及0℃层高度与气温、降水、海拔的相关性分析,并预测了0℃层高度未来变化趋势及持续性强度。结果表明(1)西南地区0℃层高度年代际变化表现为自20世纪70年代后突然降低之后逐渐升高的趋势,各季节年代际变化也不尽相同;(2)西南地区0℃层高度在年际变化方面,在全年、秋季和冬季处于上升趋势,以冬季变化趋势最为明显且通过了显著性检验,春季和夏季处于不明显的下降趋势;(3)西南地区0℃层高度的空间分布表现为由南向北逐渐降低的趋势,夏季较为均匀,从年际变化空间分布来看,年、季节变化空间差异也比较明显;(4)西南地区各气温和降水要素表现出非常明显的空间差异,与降水各要素相比较,气温各要素与0℃层高度相关性更显著;从0℃层高度与海拔高度相关性来看,夏季0℃层高度与海拔高度相关性最好,而与其他季节及年的相关性不明显。(5)未来趋势预测表明,西南地区年、季节0℃层高度变化趋势与过去一致,并且大部分站点保持较强的持续性。
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