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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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中国城市建设用地扩张与财政收入增长的面板格兰杰因果检验
DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201312001, PP. 1595-1606
Keywords: 土地财政,格兰杰因果检验,财政收入,区域差异,城市建设用地
Abstract:
土地开发已成为当前研究的一个焦点，但是对“土地财政”现象的研究仍集中在其形成机制方面，而很少证实土地是否及如何推动了地方财政收入的增长。为此，本文基于《城市统计年鉴》（1985-2011）的面板数据，构建面板误差修正模型和随机效应模型，运用格兰杰因果检验探讨城市建设用地扩张与城市财政收入增长之间的因果关系，并对“土地财政”的影响机制、区域差异和开发效率进行初步探讨。结果显示，从1995年开始，中国城市的土地开发是推动其地方财政收入增长的格兰杰原因。但是这种效应主要为即期的影响，而对房地产开发和工业增值税的长期推动效果不太显著，这暗示了土地财政在中国有过度的倾向。从区域差异来看，土地开发对地方财政收入的推动幅度在中西部地区或在100万人口以上的超大城市更大，且随城市规模的增加其影响效果更为显著。
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