|
OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
|
|
|
|
城市化对传染病传播影响的动态模拟———以英国南安普顿市为例
DOI: 10.11821/xb200702005, PP. 157-170
Keywords: 城市化,传染病传播,元胞自动机土地开发模型,人口预测矩阵模型,元胞自动机传染病模型,英国
Abstract:
在定量化和空间化模拟分析的基础上,探讨了城市化对传染病传播影响的模型框架。该模型框架是通过人口空间分布表面,集成了元胞自动机土地开发模型、人口预测矩阵模型和元胞自动机传染病模型,在动态的,随机的模拟环境中将城市化与传染病传播结合起来。以英国南安普顿市为研究区,对南安普顿市的“郊区化”对传染病传播的影响进行了动态模拟,场景模拟和定量分析。结果表明4个模拟预测年期(2001年、2011年、2021年和2031年)的平均传染病例数没有太大的变化,“郊区化”对传染病的传播没有太大影响。但是,“郊区化”中的城市局部的家庭迁移和全市的年轻年龄组的迁移可能会通过在同年份减少平均传染病例数而影响传染病的传播。
| [1] | [何春阳,陈晋,史培军等.基于CA的城市空间动态模型研究.地球科学进展,2002,17(2):188-196.]
|
| [2] | BattyM,CouclelisH,EichenM.Urbansystemsascellularautomata.EnvironmentandPlanningB,1997,24:159-164.
|
| [3] | WuF.SimLand:AprototypetosimulatelandconversionthroughtheintegratedGISandCAwithAHP-derivedtransitionrules.Int.J.GeographicalInformationScience,1998,12(1):63-82.
|
| [4] | WuF.Aparameterizedurbancellularmodelcombingspontaneousandself-organisinggrowth.In:AtkinsonP,MartinDed.Geocomputation:InnovationinGIS7.London:Taylor&Francis,2000.73-85.
|
| [5] | ClarkeKC,GaydosLJ.Loose-couplingacellularautomatamodelandGIS:long-termurbangrowthpredictionforSanFranciscoandWashington/Baltimore.Int.J.GeographicalInformationScience,1998,12(7):699-714.
|
| [6] | YehAGO,LiX.Urbansimulationusingneuralnetworksandcellularautomataforlanduseplanning.SymposiumonGeospatialTheory,ProcessingandApplications,Ottawa,2002.
|
| [7] | LiuY,RhinnS.Modellingurbandevelopmentwithcellularautomataincorporatingfuzzy-setapproaches.Computers,EnvironmentandUrbanSystems,2003,27:637-658.
|
| [8] | AlmeidaC,BattyM,MonteiroAetal.Stochasticcellularautomatamodelingofurbanlandusedynamics:empiricaldevelopmentandestimation.Computers,EnvironmentandUrbanSystems,2003,27:481-509.
|
| [9] | AhmedE,AgizaHN.Onmodelingepidemics.Includinglatency,incubationandvariablesusceptibility.PhysicaA,1998,253:347-352.
|
| [10] | HanLitao,MaZhi'en,LiWeihua.Epidemicmodelwithadditionaldiseasedeathrates.JournalofXi'anJiaotongUniversity,2000,34(9):54-57.
|
| [11] | LiJianquan,ZhangJuan,MaZhi'en.Globalanalysisofsomeepidemicmodelswithgeneralcontactrateandconstantimmigration.AppliedMathematicsandMechanics,2004,25(4):359-367.
|
| [12] | XuJie,ZhouYicang.Hepatitisepidemicmodelswithproportionalandpulsevaccination.JournalofBiomathematics,2004,19(2):149-155.
|
| [13] | ChenJunjie,PanGuowei.Adynamicmodelfordiseaseswithnonpermanentimmunityinavariablesizepopulation.JournalofBiomathematics,2003,18(4):401-405.
|
| [14] | [陈军杰,潘国卫.一个具暂时免疫且总人数可变的传染病动力学模型.生物数学学报,2003,18(4):401-405.]
|
| [15] | RhodesCJ,AndersonRM.Dynamicsinalatticeepidemicmodel.PhysicsLettersA,1996,210:183-188.
|
| [16] | RousseauG,GiorginiB,LiviRetal.Dynamicalphasesinacellularautomatonmodelforepidemicpropagation.PhysicaD,1997,103:554-563.
|
| [17] | PacioneM.Wherewillthepeoplego?—assessingthenewsettlementoptionfortheUnitedKingdom.ProgressinPlanning,2004,62:73-129.
|
| [18] | HarrisR,LongleyP.Newdataandapproachesforurbananalysis:modellingresidentialdensities.TransactionsinGIS,2000,4(3):217-234.
|
| [19] | MartinD.Census2001:makingthebestofzonalgeographies.PresentedattheTheCensusofPopulation:2000andBeyond,UniversityofManchester,22-23June2000.
|
| [20] | SmithSK.Furtherthoughtsonsimplicityandcomplexityinpopulationprojectionmodels.InternationalJournalofForecasting,1997,13:557-565.
|
| [21] | BoottRH.London'sbrownfieldresourcepilotproject:theWandleValley.CASAPaper14,1999.
|
| [22] | HaySI,GuerraCA,TatemAIetal.Urbanization,malariatransmissionanddiseaseburdeninAfrica.NatureReviews,2005,3:81-90.
|
| [23] | MooreM,GouldP,KearyBS.Globalurbanizationandimpactonhealth.InternationalJournalofHygieneandEnvironmentalHealth,2003,206:269-278.
|
| [24] | PanYue,FuHongpeng.EpidemiolgicalcharacteristicsunderthestateofFloatingUrbanization.ChinaJournalPublicHealth,2005,21(12):1502-1503.
|
| [25] | [潘越,付鸿鹏."浮动城市化"状态下的流行病学特征.中国公共卫生,2005,21(12):1502-1503.]
|
| [26] | LiGe.Theimpactofruralurbanizingondiabetesforelderpeople.ModernRehabilitation,2004,8(21):4178-4179.
|
| [27] | [李舸.农村城市化对老年糖尿病流行病学的影响.中国临床康复,2004,8(21):4178-4179.]
|
| [28] | ChenLiling,ShaoMengchi,CaiPing.Investigationoninfectiousdiseaseincidenceinfloatingpopulationduringtheperiod1994-1999inSuzhouCity.ChineseJournalofEpidemiology,2001,22(1):71-72.
|
| [29] | [陈立凌,邵梦篪,蔡平.苏州市1994~1999年流动人口传染病发病情况调查.中华流行病学杂志,2001,22(1):71-72.]
|
| [30] | AntropM.LandscapechangeandtheurbanizationprocessinEurope.LandscapeandUrbanPlanning,2004,67:9-26.
|
| [31] | WuF.Simulatingurbanencroachmentonrurallandwithfuzzy-logic-controlledcellularautomatainageographicalinformationsystem.JournalofEnvironmentalManagement,1998,53:293-308.
|
| [32] | [刘小平,黎夏,艾彬等.基于多智能体的土地利用模拟与规划模型.地理学报,2006,61(10):1101-1112.]
|
| [33] | [何春阳,陈晋,史培军等.大都市区域市扩展模型———以北京城市扩展模拟为例.地理学报,2003,58(2):294-304.]
|
| [34] | [黎夏,叶嘉安.基于神经网络的单元自动机CA及真实和优化的城市模拟.地理学报,2002,57(2):159-166.]
|
| [35] | [周成虎,孙战利,谢一春.地理元胞自动机研究.北京:科学出版社,1999.78-116.]
|
| [36] | XuXueqiang,ZhouYixing,NingYuemin.UrbanGeography.Beijing:HigherEducationPress,1997.76-77.
|
| [37] | [许学强,周一星,宁越敏.城市地理学.北京:高等教育出版社,1997.76-77.]
|
| [38] | MutatkarPK.Publichealthproblemsofurbanization.Soc.Sci.Med.,1995,41(7):977-981.
|
| [39] | Wang'ombeJK.Publichealthcrisesofcitiesindevelopingcountries.Soc.Sci.Med.,1995,41(6):857-862.
|
| [40] | HarphamT.Urbanisationandhealthintransition.Lancet(supplIII),1997,349:11-13.
|
| [41] | XueJuying,LüYaning,SunHongzhuan.Investigationandanalysisondiarrheaincidenceafterruralurbanized.ChineseClinicalNewMedicine,2005,5(4):353-354.
|
| [42] | [薛菊英,吕亚宁,孙红专.农村城市化后"菌痢"发病情况调查分析.中华临床新医学,2005,5(4):353-354.]
|
| [43] | WeberC,PuissantA.Urbanizationpressureandmodelingofurbangrowth:exampleoftheTunismetropolitanarea.RemoteSensingofEnvironment,2003,86:341-352.
|
| [44] | BattyM,XieY,SunZ.Thedynamicsofurbansprawl.CASAPaper15,1999.
|
| [45] | WuF,MartinD.UrbanexpansionsimulationofSoutheastEnglandusingpopulationsurfacemodelingandcellularautomata.EnvironmentandPlanningA,2002,34:1855-1876.
|
| [46] | LiuXiaoping,LiXia,AiBinetal.Multi-agentsystemsforsimulatingandplanninglandusedevelopment.ActaGeographicaSinica,2006,61(10):1101-1112.
|
| [47] | HeChunyang,ChenJin,ShiPeijunetal.CityexpansionmodelofmetropolitanareainChina.ActaGeographicaSinica,2003,58(2):294-304.
|
| [48] | LiXia,YehAG-O.Neural-network-basedCellularAutomataforrealisticandidealizedurbansimulation.ActaGeographicaSinica,2002,57(2):159-166.
|
| [49] | ZhouChenghu,SunZhanli,XieYichun.Geo-CellularAutomata.Beijing:SciencePress,1999.78-116.
|
| [50] | HeChunyang,ChenJin,ShiPeijunetal.StudyonthespatialdynamiccitymodelbasedonCA(CellularAutomata)model.AdvanceinEarthSciences,2002,17(2):188-196.
|
| [51] | BattyM,XieY.Possibleurbanautomata.EnvironmentandPlanningB,1997,24:175-192.
|
| [52] | BattyM,XieY,SunZ.ModelingurbandynamicsthroughGIS-basedcellularautomata.Computers,EnvironmentandUrbanSystems,1999,23:205-233.
|
| [53] | WuF.Calibrationofstochasticcellularautomata:theapplicationtorural-urbanlandconversions.Int.J.GeographicalInformationScience,2002,16(8):795-818.
|
| [54] | XieY,BattyM.Integratedurbanevolutionarymodeling.CASAPaper68,2003.
|
| [55] | WebsterCJ,WuF.Regulation,land-usemix,andurbanperformance.Part2:Simulation.EnvironmentandPlanningA,1999,31:1529-1545.
|
| [56] | WuF.Introduction—urbansimulation.In:AtkinsonPM,FoodyGM,DarbySEetal.(ed.),GeoDynamics.London:CRCPress,2005.205-214.
|
| [57] | BattyM.Urbanevolutiononthedesktop:simulationwiththeuseofextendedcellularautomata.EnvironmentandPlanningA,1996,30:1943-1967.
|
| [58] | LiYinglu,LeiLei,MaRunnian.Analysisofdiscrete-timeepidemicmodel.JournalofAirForceEngineeringUniversity(NaturalScienceEdition),2006,7(3):85-88.
|
| [59] | [李颖路,雷磊,马润年.一类离散的传染病模型分析.空军工程大学学报(自然科学版),2006,7(3):85-88.]
|
| [60] | [韩丽涛,马知恩,李伟华.一类疾病额外死亡率存在的传染病模型.西安交通大学学报,2000,34(9):54-57.]
|
| [61] | [李健全,张娟,马知恩.一类带有一般接触率和常数输入的流行病模型的全局分析.应用数学和力学,2004,25(4):359-367.]
|
| [62] | [徐洁,周义仓.具有比例和脉冲接种的乙肝流行病模型.生物数学学报,2004,19(2):149-155.]
|
| [63] | SirakoulisGCH,KarafyllidisI,ThanailakisA.Acellularautomatonmodelfortheeffectsofpopulationmovementandvaccinationonepidemicpropagation.EcologicalModelling,2000,133:209-223.
|
| [64] | O'SullivanD,TorrensPM.Cellularmodelsofurbansystems.CASAPaper22,2000.
|
| [65] | CaswellH.MatrixPopulationModels:Construction,AnalysisandInterpretation.SinauerAssociates,Inc.Sunderland,Massachusetts,1989.
|
| [66] | KrivanV.Effectsofoptimalantipredatorbehaviorofpreyonpredator-preydynamics:theroleofrefuges.TheoreticalPopulationBiology,1998,53:131-142.
|
| [67] | MartinD,DorlingD,MitchellR.Linkingcensusesthroughtime:Problemsandsolutions.Area,2002,34(1):82-91.
|
| [68] | MartinD.Mappingpopulationdatafromzonecentroidlocations.TransactionsoftheInstituteofBritishGeographersNS,1989,14:90-97.
|
| [69] | BrehenyM.Urbancompaction:feasibleandacceptable?Cities,1997,14(4):209-217.
|
| [70] | ManfrediP,WilliamsJR.Realisticpopulationdynamicsinepidemiologicalmodels:theimpactofpopulationdeclineonthedynamicsofchildhoodinfectiousdiseaseMeaslesinItalyasanexample.MathematicalBiosciences,2004,192:153-175.
|
Full-Text
|
|
Contact Us
service@oalib.com QQ:3279437679 
WhatsApp +8615387084133
|
|
