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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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AutoLogistic方法在土地利用格局模拟中的应用——以张家界市永定区为例
DOI: 10.11821/xb200802005, PP. 156-164
Keywords: 土地利用格局,空间模拟,AutoLogistic,回归模型,空间自相关,张家界市永定区
Abstract:
土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)是当前研究全球变化的重要内容,而区域土地利用格局模拟是LUCC研究的核心内容之一。以张家界市永定区为研究单元,根据由2005年土地利用现状图和数字高程模型数据源得到的土地利用、地形、河流以及道路等空间数据,对区域土地利用类型空间格局的空间自相关性特征进行了建模研究,并通过在传统Logistic模型中引入描述空间自相关性的成份,实现了能够考虑自相关性因素的回归分析模型(AutoLogistic模型),同时应用该模型对区域土地利用格局进行了模拟和分析。结果显示,通过与没有考虑空间自相关性的回归模型(传统Logistic模型)相比较,该模型显示了更好的拟合优度和更高的拟合准确率(耕地、林地、建设用地及未利用地的ROC值分别从0.851、0.913、0.877和0.852提高到0.893、0.940、0.907和0.863)。研究结果说明了基于AutoLogistic方法的土地利用格局的相关性建模在一定意义上是合理的。同时研究结果也可以为永定区及其相似地区的土地利用规划决策提供更为科学的依据。
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