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地理学报 2012

气候变化对小麦生物量影响的概率预测和不确定性分析

DOI: 10.11821/xb201203005, PP. 337-345

刘玉洁,陶福禄

Keywords: 温度升高,CO2浓度,小麦,生物量,概率预测

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Abstract:

气候变化对农业生产的影响和适应一直是学界关注的重点。但是,由于气候模式输出、排放情景、尺度转换、模型参数化等研究过程中存在的不确定性,往往导致研究结果也存在较大的不确定性。为减少研究结果的不确定性,本研究综合了IPCC四个排放情景(A1FI、A2、B1、B2)以及5个全球气候模式(HadCM3,PCM,CGCM2,CSIRO2,ECHAM4)的输出结果,基于英国CRU气候中心的20个未来情景数据库,生成全球平均温度升高1℃(GMT+1D)、2℃(GMT+2D)、3℃(GMT+3D)下研究站点的气候日值中值情景数据,利用过程模型CERES-Wheat和概率预测方法研究CO2肥效作用和GMT+1D、GMT+2D、GMT+3D对我国小麦主产区小麦生物量的影响。研究结果表明CO2肥效作用可以补偿由于温度升高而造成的小麦生物量减产且补偿作用随着温度的升高而增加。当有CO2肥效作用时,灌溉小麦和雨养小麦生物量均增加,且随着温度的升高生物量的增长程度增大,相同情景下,雨养小麦生物量的增高概率大于灌溉小麦。当不考虑CO2肥效作用时,灌溉小麦和雨养小麦生物量均降低,且灌溉小麦生物量减产的概率大于雨养小麦减产概率。

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