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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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怒江流域气候特征及其变化趋势
DOI: 10.11821/xb201205005, PP. 621-630
Keywords: 气候变化,Mann-Kendall检验,突变分析,高原山地
Abstract:
利用怒江流域及其毗邻地区16个气象台站长时序逐月气温和降水量数据,运用TFPW-MK(Trend-freePre-whiteningMann-Kendall)检验和重复迭代变化诊断等方法,分析了近几十年来怒江流域气候要素空间格局和变化特征。结果表明(1)怒江流域气温(年平均、年最高和年最低)和年降水量由北向南总体呈递增,并与海拔相关性极为显著(α=0.01),且气候要素值随海拔升高而降低;(2)降水集中度地域差异明显,西藏境内降水集中度多达60%以上,全流域降水集中期(除贡山站外)多介于7月下旬至8月下旬;(3)流域升温趋势显著,其年平均、年最高和年最低气温变化趋势多与纬度和海拔呈显著相关,其中年平均气温增幅为0.36℃10a;(4)部分站点气温变化存在突变点,且其多出现于暖冬频发的20世纪80年代以后;(5)年降水量总体有所增多,但变化趋势多不显著,无明显变点。
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