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地理学报 2013

1961-2010年西藏极端气温事件的时空变化

DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201309010, PP. 1269-1280

杜军,路红亚,建军

Keywords: 趋势,西藏,突变,极端气温指数

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Abstract:

利用18个气象站点1961-2010年逐日最高、最低气温和平均气温资料,分析了西藏极端气温事件的变化规律。结果表明近50a西藏霜冻日数和结冰日数明显减少,结冰日数减少显著的区域集中在藏北,霜冻日数则在整个区域都显著减少;生长季长度以4.71d/10a的速度明显延长,以拉萨、泽当最显著。极端最低气温在全区范围均呈显著升高,尤其是近30a升幅更大,达1.06oC/10a;最高气温的极大值在沿雅鲁藏布江一线东段和那曲地区上升较明显,而在南部边缘地区有下降的趋势。冷夜(昼)日数普遍明显减少,减幅为9.38d/10a(4.96d/10a);暖夜(昼)日数显著增加,增幅为10.99d/10a(6.72d/10a)。大部分极端气温指数的变化趋势与海拔高度有较高的相关性,其中极端最低气温与海拔高度呈正相关,极端最高气温、结冰日数、暖昼(夜)日数和生长季长度呈负相关。极端最高、最低气温和气温暖指数呈逐年代增加趋势,极端气温冷指数和生长季长度表现为下降的年代际变化特征。在时间转折上,极端最低气温、冷(暖)夜指数和生长季长度的突变点发生在20世纪90年代中期前,霜冻、结冰日数和冷(暖)昼指数的突变点则推迟到21世纪初期。多数情况下,西藏极端气温指数的变幅比全国、青藏高原及其周边地区偏大,说明西藏极端气温变化对区域增温的响应更为敏感。

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