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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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盐城麋鹿生态旅游区游客变化特征及预测
DOI: 10.11821/xb200712004, PP. 1277-1286
Keywords: 游客预测,Tramo/Seats,模型,ARIMA,模型,Winters,模型,盐城麋鹿生态旅游区
Abstract:
生态旅游区的发展受到诸多确定性因素和随机性因素的共同作用，并反映于旅游区游客观测序列。通过构建游客序列分析框架，提出了游客序列分析的理论模型。并以江苏盐城麋鹿生态旅游区为例，集成多种数学方法，进行了游客序列的分解、调整和综合预测的实证分析。运用Tramo/Seats方法进行季节调整分析可有效提取时间序列各组分，从而获得了不同尺度的作用模式，所获得的去噪序列为预测研究提供了基础资料。基于ARIMA模型、Winter加法模型、Winter乘法模型和Tramo/Seats模型的综合预测表明，麋鹿生态旅游区未来两年年平均新增游客数量在1.95-3.14万人次之间。各方法预测结果间的差异与其建模思路及实现方法有关，因此集成多种方法进行预测，并进行对比分析，有助于获得对游客波动变化更为全面的认识，同时所提供的多种可能预测方案，可为生态旅游区容量控制、旅游环境资源的保护与开发及旅游区的管理决策提供参考依据。
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