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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子
DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201403001, PP. 291-302
Keywords: 小波分析,CO2排放量,中亚干旱区,气温,多时间尺度,亚洲极涡
Abstract:
利用中亚干旱区5大主要典型流域代表性气象站点近130年逐月实测气温数据，结合线性趋势、Mann-Kenndall非参数检验和小波分析等方法，研究了各流域气温的多时间尺度特征，并探讨了引起气温变化的可能因素。研究发现，在近130年来中亚干旱区各主要流域（除阿姆河外）年均气温均呈上升趋势，增温趋势高于全球和周边地区，中亚干旱区气温对全球变化的响应比其他地区更加明显。20世纪80年代之后更加明显，并表现出明显的多时间尺度周期振荡特征，这主要是自然外强迫动力作用、气候系统内部变化和人类活动相互叠加的结果，亚洲极涡强度减弱和面积缩小对主要流域气温变化的作用明显，其次是北半球环状模（北极涛动）和青藏高原的影响，而CO2引起的温室气体增温效应在中亚干旱区也不容忽视。气温表现出与布吕克纳周期（BC）、太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）和准2~3年振荡周期（TBO）等有关的显著周期，可以证实中亚干旱区气温变化与大气环流、海温和太阳活动等密切相关。
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