OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元
|
|
|
社会—生态系统综合风险防范的凝聚力模式
DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201406012, PP. 863-876
Keywords: 风险防范,凝聚力模式,综合,社会—生态系统,协同效能
Abstract:
在综合风险防范“凝聚力”概念的基础上,从社会—生态系统综合风险防范的“凝聚力”基本原理、凝聚力形成中的协同效能、凝聚力实现手段、凝聚力优化对提高系统抗打击能力的作用等方面系统研究了“凝聚力”的科学内涵,并初步建立了“凝聚力”的模式,以期完善现有综合风险防范理论体系。结果表明协同宽容、协同约束、协同放大和协同分散四个基本原理阐述了社会—生态系统综合风险凝聚力在协同运作上的四种表现,同时也是凝聚力在“凝心”和“聚力”具体问题上的4种优化目标的阐释;凝聚力模式将四个协同原理及其优化目标转化为社会认知普及化、成本分摊合理化、组合优化智能化、费用效益最大化等一系列手段,实现了社会—生态系统综合风险防范产生的共识最高化、成本最低化、福利最大化以及风险最小化;运用复杂系统建模和仿真的方法,通过设计社会—生态系统结构和功能的表达,验证了随着系统凝聚力的提高,系统抵抗局部和全局打击的能力均得以增强,而且,可通过优化社会—生态系统中节点的结构和功能,以达到提升系统凝聚力的目的;凝聚力模式补充了灾害系统中脆弱性、恢复性、适应性等概念在阐释社会—生态系统综合风险防范问题上存在的缺陷。
References
[1] | LiuJ,DietzT,CarpenterSRetal.Complexityofcoupledhumanandnaturalsystems.Science,2007,317:1513-1516.
|
[2] | ElinorOstrom.Ageneralframeworkforanalyzingsustainabilityofsocial-ecologicalsystems.Science,2009,325(419),
|
[3] | doi:10.1126/science.1172133.
|
[4] | YoungOR,BerkhoutF,GallopínGetal.Theglobalizationofsocio-ecologicalsystems:Anagendaforscientific
|
[5] | research.GlobalEnvironmentalChange,2006,16(3):304-316.
|
[6] | HelbingD.Globallynetworkedrisksandhowtorespond.Nature,2013,497:51-59.
|
[7] | ShiPeijun,LiNing,YeQianetal.Researchonglobalenvironmentchangeandintegrateddisasterriskgovernance.
|
[8] | AdvancesinEarthScience,2009,24(4):428-435.[史培军,李宁,叶谦等.全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究.
|
[9] | 地球科学进展,2009,24(4):428-435.]
|
[10] | ShiPeijun,CarloJaeger.IntegratedRiskGovernance:IHDP-IntegratedRiskGovernanceProjectSeries.Beijing:
|
[11] | BeijingNormalUniversityPress,2012.[史培军,耶格.卡罗.综合风险防范:IHDP综合风险防范核心科学计划与综合
|
[12] | 巨灾风险防范研究.北京:北京师范大学出版社,2012.]
|
[13] | ShiPeijun.Theoryandpracticeofdisasterresearch.JournalofNanjingUniversity,1991(SpecialIssue):37-42.[史培
|
[14] | 军.灾害研究的理论与实践.南京大学学报,1991(专刊):37-42.]
|
[15] | ShiPeijun.Disastersystemresearchtheoryandpracticeinasecondtime.JournalofNaturalDisasters,1996,5(4):6-
|
[16] | 17.[史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,1996,5(4):6-17.]
|
[17] | ShiPeijun.Disastersystemresearchtheoryandpracticeinathirdtime.JournalofNaturalDisasters,2002,11(3):1-
|
[18] | 9.[史培军.三论灾害系统研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):1-9.]
|
[19] | ShiPeijun.Disastersystemresearchtheoryandpracticeinafourthtime.JournalofNaturalDisasters,2005,(6):1-7.[史培军.四论灾害系统研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):1-7.]
|
[20] | GallopínGC,FuntowiczS,O’ConnorMetal.Scienceforthe21stcentury:Fromsocialcontracttothescientific
|
[21] | core.InternationalSocialScienceJournal,2001,168:219-229.
|
[22] | GallopínGC.Humandimensionsofglobalchange:Linkingtheglobalandthelocalprocesses.InternationalSocial
|
[23] | ScienceJournal,1991,130:707-718.
|
[24] | ShiPeijun.Disastersystemresearchtheoryandpracticeinafifthtime.JournalofNaturalDisasters,2009,18(5):1-
|
[25] | 9.[史培军.五论灾害系统研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,2009,18(5):1-9.]
|
[26] | TurnerIIBL,KaspersonRE,MatsonPAetal.Aframeworkforvulnerabilityanalysisinsustainabilityscience.
|
[27] | ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica,2003,100(14),8074-8079.
|
[28] | OranRYoung.Institutionaldynamics:Resilience,vulnerabilityandadaptationinenvironmentalandresourceregimes,
|
[29] | GlobalEnvironmentalChange,2010,20(3):378-385..
|
[30] | KaspersonJX,KaspersonRE,TurnerIIBLetal.Vulnerabilitytoglobalenvironmentalchange//Kasperson,JX,
|
[31] | KaspersonRE.SocialContoursofRisk.Vol.II.London:Earthscan,2005:245-285.
|
[32] | vanderLeeuwSE.‘Vulnerability’andtheintegratedstudyofsocio-naturalphenomena.IHDPUpdate2/01,art.
|
[33] | 2[online].URL:http://www.ihdp.uni-bonn.de/html/publications/update/IHDPUpdate01_02.html,2001.
|
[34] | MarcoAJanssen,ElinorOstrom,Resilience,vulnerability,andadaptation:Across-cuttingthemeoftheInternational
|
[35] | HumanDimensionsProgrammeonGlobalEnvironmentalChange,GlobalEnvironmentalChange,2006,16(3):237-
|
[36] | 239.
|
[37] | AdgerWN.Vulnerability.GlobalEnvironmentalChange,2006,16(3):268-281.
|
[38] | GilbertoCGallopín,Linkagesbetweenvulnerability,resilience,andadaptivecapacity.GlobalEnvironmentalChange,
|
[39] | 2006,16(3):293-303.
|
[40] | BurtonI,KatesRW,WhiteGF.TheEnvironmentasHazard.NewYork:Guilford,1978.
|
[41] | BlaikieP,CannonT,DavisIetal.AtRisk:NaturalHazards,People'sVulnerabilityandDisasters.London;Routledge,
|
[42] | 1994.
|
[43] | AdgerWN.Socialandecologicalresilience:aretheyrelated?ProgressinHumanGeography,2000,24(3):347-364.
|
[44] | AdgerWN,HughesTP,FolkeCetal.Social-ecologicalresiliencetocoastaldisasters.Science,2005,309(5737):
|
[45] | 1036-1039.
|
[46] | FolkeC,CarpenterS,ElmqvistTetal.Resilienceandsustainabledevelopment:Buildingadaptivecapacityinaworld
|
[47] | oftransformations.ReportfortheSwedishEnvironmentalAdvisoryCouncil2002:1.MinistryoftheEnvironment,
|
[48] | Stockholm,Sweden,2002.
|
[49] | PimmSL.Thecomplexityandstabilityofecosystems.Nature,1984,307(26):321-326.
|
[50] | HollingCS.Engineeringresilienceversusecologicalresilience//SchulzePC.EngineeringwithinEcological
|
[51] | Constraints.NationalAcademyPress,Washington,DC,1996:31-43.
|
[52] | BarrySmit,JohannaWandel.Adaptation,adaptivecapacityandvulnerability.GlobalEnvironmentalChange,2006,16
|
[53] | (3):282-292.
|
[54] | AdgerWN,ArnellNW,TompkinsEL.Adaptingtoclimatechange:Perspectivesacrossscales.Global
|
[55] | EnvironmentalChange,2005,15(2):75-76.
|
[56] | ShiPeijun,WangJing'ai,ChenJingetal.TheFutureofHuman-EnvironmentInteractionResearchinGeography:
|
[57] | Lessonsfromthe6thOpenMeetingofIHDP.ActaGeographicaSinica,2006,61(2):115-126.[史培军,王静爱,陈婧
|
[58] | 等.当代地理学之人地相互作用研究的趋向:全球变化人类行为计划(IHDP)第六届开放会议透视.地理学报,
|
[59] | 2006,61(2):115-126.]
|
[60] | ShiPeijun,YeQian,HanGuoyietal.Livingwithglobalclimatediversity:Suggestionsoninternationalgovernance
|
[61] | forcopingwithclimatechangerisk..InternationalJournalofDisasterRiskScience,2012,3(4):177-183.
|
[62] | WhewellW.ThePhilosophyoftheInductiveSciences.NewYork:JohnsonReprintCorp,1847.
|
[63] | WilsonEO.Consilience:TheUnityofKnowledge.VintageBooksUSA,1999.
|
[64] | BoccalettiS,LatoraV,MorenoYetal.Complexnetworks:Structureanddynamics.Phys.Rep.,2006,424:175.
|
[65] | AlbertR,BarabasiAL.Statisticalmechanicsofcomplexnetworks.ReviewsofModernPhysics,2002,74:47.
|
[66] | WattsDJ,StrogatzSH.Collectivedynamicsof'small-world'networks.Nature,1998,393(440).
|
[67] | BarabásiAL,AlbertR.Emergenceofscalinginrandomnetworks.Science,1999,286(5439):509-512.
|
Full-Text
|
|
Contact Us
service@oalib.com QQ:3279437679 
WhatsApp +8615387084133
|
|