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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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长江干流径流的时序结构与长期记忆
DOI: 10.11821/xb200601005, PP. 47-56
Keywords: 径流序列,时序结构,长期记忆,长江
Abstract:
基于宜昌、汉口、大通3个典型控制站的长期月径流序列，本文采用奇异谱分析方法、消除波动趋势法(DFA)等手段，识别长江干流径流序列的趋势、突变、周期振荡等时序结构及其长期记忆特征。主要结论有①长江干流径流序列存在明显的准15年周期振荡特征，该周期振荡1970s以来受到某种扰动而弱化；②宜昌站径流序列于1926年、1970年发生两次突变，均以径流减少为特征；汉口站径流序列于1955a发生突变，也以径流减少为特征；大通站径流于1955年、1988年发生两次突变，前者以径流减少为特征，后者以增加为特征；③长江干流月径流序列存在较强的确定性成分，长期记忆特征明显；集水面积越大，径流序列的长期记忆越强，表现出明显的记忆累积效应。
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