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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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情景分析法在工业用地置换中的应用———以福建省长汀腾飞经济开发区为例
DOI: 10.11821/xb200708011, PP. 887-896
Keywords: 开发区,工业用地,情景分析法,土地综合价值,收支比,福建
Abstract:
从土地综合价值出发,将一般用于宏观研究的情景分析法引入微观领域,根据社会、经济、环境效益的最佳、最差和最可能情景模式,确定工业用地和居住用地开发的情景过程及其对比特征。研究表明,福建省长汀腾飞经济开发区最可能情景下的工业收支比经过16年才能达到平衡,居住和商业用地最可能情景下收支比可以维持在3~5左右的稳定发展水平,在前5年,居住用地的收支比8~10倍于工业用地,然后差距逐步缩小,降低到20年期2倍的水平。这一情景表明,腾飞经济开发区要缩小规模,分步、分阶段地把没有进行开发的闲置土地和3年左右依然处于亏损的企业用地置换出来,工业用地应该由目前的2.5km2缩减到1~1.5km2。
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