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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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基于耦合地理模拟优化系统GeoSOS的农田保护区预警
DOI: 10.11821/xb201009011, PP. 1137-1145
Keywords: 农田保护区,地理模拟优化系统,GeoSOS,AgentLA,番禺
Abstract:
依据农田保护区规划与城市发展模拟相耦合的新思路，开展农田保护区预警研究。以广东番禺为实验区，首先利用基于多智能体的空间优化配置模型(AgentLA)自动生成农田保护区范围。AgentLA模型能避免产生分散、破碎的空间格局，有利于保护区的管理和维护。通过地理模拟优化系统GeoSOS中的神经网络CA模型对研究区2025年的城市发展格局进行三个情景的模拟低速增长情景、基准情景和高速增长情景。最后利用GIS空间分析方法将预测结果与农田保护区相结合，提取农田保护与城市扩张产生冲突的区域。总体上，冲突的严重程度随着空间上城市扩张强度的增大而加剧，高速增长情景中冲突区域的面积较大。冲突区域的存在一方面说明了农田保护区需要相应的法律、法规支持，否则可能会因城市扩张而被侵占；另一方面也反映了农田保护与地区发展之间的冲突。因此，可以根据所提取的冲突区域面积大小、空间位置等特征，采取某种形式补偿，以此取得农田保护与地方利益之间的平衡。
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