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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
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1961-2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化
DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201405007, PP. 640-649
Keywords: 极端降水,格点数据,中国南方
Abstract:
基于国家气象信息中心发布的1961-2011年全国0.5°×0.5°逐日降水量数据集和气象站点日降水量实测资料，评估了该套格点降水资料在中国南方地区的可信度，并选取了世界气象组织等推荐的5个极端降水指数，利用格点资料研究了中国南方地区的极端降水事件变化。结果表明，内插到气象站点位置的格点资料和气象站点实测数据之间的偏差普遍较小，偏差在-10%~0之间的站点个数占总个数的50.64%，在绝大多数区域二者之间的相关系数均在0.80以上；各极端降水指数的多年平均值表现出明显的空间分布规律，越靠近西北方向越干旱，而越靠近东南方向越湿润；1961-2011年间，最大5日降水量（RX5day）、极端降水量（R95）、日降水量≥20mm天数（R20mm）和日降水强度（SDII）的年际倾向率分别为0.17mm·a-1、1.14mm·a-1、0.02d·a-1和0.01mm·d-1·a-1，持续降水日数（CWD）则以-0.05d·a-1的速率减少；各极端降水指数的变化趋势存在空间差异，RX5day、SDII和R95呈增加趋势的格点所占比例分别为60.85%、75.32%和75.74%；各极端降水指数与总降水量之间均存在较好的相关性，且均通过了0.01水平的置信度检验。
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