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地理学报 2014

北京市人口时空变化与情景预测研究

DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201410008, PP. 1487-1495

梁昊光,刘彦随

Keywords: 优化布局,北京市,城市人口,CA-MAS模型

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Abstract:

利用第五次和第六次人口普查数据,分析北京全域乡镇街道尺度人口空间变化格局特征,并借助CA-MAS模型对未来城市人口格局进行情景模拟,以期增进对北京人口时空动态的认识,为北京城市管理决策和宏观调控提供科学参考.研究表明①2000-2010年,北京常住人口年均增长率高达3.5%,年均增加近60万人,是同期我国人口增长最快的特大城市之一;②北京全域人口变化在空间上具有明显的圈层式特征,集中表现为中心区人口增长几乎停滞、近郊区人口快速增长、远郊城市发展新区人口高速增长、远郊生态涵养区往往仅区县政府驻地及重点乡镇人口明显增长;③基于CA-MAS的情景模拟分析表明,在自发布局情景下,就业机会进一步向城市中心集聚,人口居住不断郊区化,这将增大城市的通勤压力,加剧城市交通拥堵状况,而通过调整就业参数,强化工作地居住功能的引导政策,则能在一定程度上解决城市内部空间尺度产城失衡的问题,可促进小城镇群的形成,有利于降低城市通勤压力,发挥城市的辐射和扩散作用.本文认为,为实现北京人口空间布局优化,应着力促进就业与居住相协调,推动区域间公共资源均等化,规划多中心组团发展.

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