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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟——以大连经济技术开发区为例
DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201503009, PP. 461-475
Keywords: 局部土地利用竞争,元胞自动机模型,土地利用变化,模拟,大连市经济技术开发区
Abstract:
元胞自动机模型已经成为模拟土地利用变化的重要方法。传统土地模拟方法中侧重于通过分析影响土地利用变化的因素来构建预测模型,较少从土地利用类型变化及其相互作用的空间角度来关注模型构建。本文以1998年、2004年和2009年110000土地利用数据,利用Python语言结合GDAL与Numpy类库实现局部土地利用竞争的元胞自动机模型原型开发,并用于模拟大连市经济技术开发区1998-2009年土地利用变化模拟。研究结果①建立了发掘多地类之间相互作用关系的试验方法,研究适用于具有明确物理意义的多地类元胞自动机模拟模型;②该模型具有好的模拟精度,对建设用地、农用地和林地等3种不同类型用地进行同时模拟,其对应Kappa系数分别为0.762,0.634和0.678;③该模型建立了研究不同种地类协调作用的基本方法,可以用于进一步研究土地利用变化地类之间驱动原理。
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