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OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
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2000-2014年秦巴山区植被覆盖时空变化特征及其归因
DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201505003, PP. 705-716
Keywords: 植被覆盖,时空变化,归因分析,ENSO,秦巴山区
Abstract:
利用MODIS-NDVI数据,辅以趋势分析、Hurst指数及偏相关分析等方法,本文探讨了2000-2014年秦巴山区植被覆盖时空变化特征及未来趋势,并对其驱动因素进行分析。研究发现①近15年秦巴山区植被覆盖呈显著增加趋势,增速为2.8%/10a,其中2010年之前植被覆盖呈持续增加趋势,增速为4.32%/10a,而2010年之后呈连续下降态势,降速为-6.59%/10a;②空间上,植被覆盖格局呈现“中间高、四周低”的分布特征,高值区主要分布在陕西境内的秦岭山地和大巴山山地;③秦巴山区植被覆盖呈增加和减少趋势的面积分别占81.32%和18.68%;然而,分段结果表明,2010-2014年有71.61%的区域植被覆盖呈下降趋势;④秦巴山区植被覆盖变化的反向特征强于同向特征,其中46.89%的区域将由改善转为退化,而持续改善地区仅占34.44%;⑤植被覆盖变化主要归因于降水的减少,同时拉尼娜年的植被覆盖整体好于厄尔尼诺年;⑥人类活动对植被覆盖造成双重影响,是植被覆盖变化的另一重要影响因素。
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