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测绘学报  2015 

定向移动基于马尔科夫链的时空不确定性

DOI: 10.11947/j.AGCS.2015.20140357, PP. 1160-1166

Keywords: 概率时间地理,马尔科夫链,定向移动,棱柱体

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Abstract:

概率时间地理是经典时间地理基于概率的一种扩展,它采用概率描述移动对象在可达位置的非等可能性.已有的概率时间地理是基于正态分布或布朗桥的,其方差与移动速度无关或随移动速度的增大而发散,因而难以兼顾应用针对性和稳定性.本文提出了一种基于马尔科夫链的概率时间地理方法.首先,构建中间关于两边的双向条件马尔科夫链,它在移动速度足够大时的极限可视为布朗桥,因而具有稳定性数字特征.然后,建立定向移动到马尔科夫链的映射关系,主要是根据定向移动的时空位置、移动速度等信息建立马尔科夫链的步长、状态空间和转移矩阵,这样马尔科夫链与移动速度有关.最后,利用双向马尔科夫链连续计算定向移动在任意时刻的概率分布云,其方差的针对性和稳定性在实例中进行了验证.

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