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汶川地震前姑咱台观测的异常应变变化

, PP. 1031-1039

Keywords: 汶川地震,地震前兆,应变变化,四分量钻孔应变仪,超限率分析

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Abstract:

?汶川地震前一年多开始,位于龙门山断裂带西南端的姑咱台钻孔应变仪,记录到异常应变变化.这种异常变化以短周期(数分钟至数小时)的“毛刺”形态为特征.在全国100多个钻孔应变台中,姑咱台距震中最近,也只有该台记录到这种异常变化.该台钻孔应变观测的良好的自检结果,说明了观测应变变化的可靠性.这种持续出现的异常变化与季节变化明显不同步,不是环境干扰因素造成的.异常变化与长期趋势变化以及同震阶跃变化的一致性,进一步说明这种异常应该是构造运动的表现.超限率分析结果显示:这种异常变化在汶川地震主震前逐渐增大,震时特别剧烈,震后逐渐衰减,显示了与该地震相当密切的相关性.这种变化的机制可能是当地附近的小尺度岩石破裂.2008年2月27日康定Ms4.5地震造成最大的典型“毛刺”.小波分解结果表明:主震前,比较长周期的异常成分出现得比较晚,这是破裂尺度在增大的表现.姑咱台的观测应变变化与唐山地震前观测到的应力变化有相似之处.

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