全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

CMIP3模式预估的21世纪东亚夏季降水年际变率变化过程

, PP. 1937-1950

Keywords: 年际变率,东亚夏季降水,未来预估,气候变化,气候模式

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

?本文利用18个CMIP3模式输出的20世纪气候模拟试验(20C3M)和SRESA1B中等排放情景数值试验模拟结果,分析了东亚夏季降水年际变率在21世纪的变化过程.在A1B情景下,模式集合平均结果显示东亚夏季降水年际变率在21世纪发生两次突变:首先在21世纪30年代发生突变,年际变率从之前变化不大的时期进入到一个持续增强的时期,在21世纪70年代达到0.53mmd-1左右,比21世纪初期增强约30%;在21世纪70年代再次发生突变,降水年际变率开始减弱并持续至21世纪末期,但仍比初期增强12%左右.在A1B情景下,西太平洋副热带高压(东亚高空急流)年际变率也在21世纪30和70年代发生突变,强度在30年代之后迅速增强,70年代之后迅速减弱,到21世纪末强度低于(略高于)20世纪水平;东亚夏季850hPa水汽输送年际变率强度在21世纪30年代之前变化幅度很小,30年代之后开始持续增强,到70年代达到最强,之后年际变率转变为减弱趋势,到21世纪末仍强于20世纪变率;另外,东亚和西北太平洋地区的大气可降水量年际变率在21世纪30和60年代发生两次阶段性的增强,强度从初期的0.1kgm-2增强到末期的0.5kgm-2,潜在降水年际变率大大增强.在A1B排放背景下,东亚夏季降水年际变率的变化是动力和热力因子共同作用的结果,在21世纪初期和中期,动力和热力因素的作用都将导致降水年际变率的增强,但在21世纪末期,动力因素将导致降水年际变率减弱,热力作用导致降水年际变率增强.

References

[1]  1 Kripalani R H, Oh J H, Chaudhari H S. Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to doubled atmospheric CO2: Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theor Appl Climatol, 2007, 87: 1-28??
[2]  2 Wang H J, Zeng Q C, Zhang X H. The numerical simulation of the climatic change by CO2 doubling. Sci China Ser B, 1993, 36: 451-462
[3]  3 布和朝鲁. 东亚季风气候未来变化的情景分析—基于IPCC SRES A2和B2方案的模拟结果. 科学通报, 2003, 48: 737-742
[4]  4 Min S K, Park E H, Kwon W T. Future projections of East Asian climate change from multi-AOGCM ensembles of IPCC SRES scenario simulations. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 2004, 82: 1187-1211??
[5]  5 Ashirt R G, Kitoh A, Yukimoto S. Transient response of ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in MRI_CGCM2.2 climate change simulations. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 2005, 83: 273-291
[6]  6 Kitoh A, Hosaka M, Adachi Y, et al. Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2. Adv Atmos Sci, 2005, 22: 467-478??
[7]  7 许吟隆, 张勇, 林一骅, 等. 利用PRECIS分析SRES B2情景下中国区域的气候变化响应. 科学通报, 2006, 51: 2068-2074
[8]  8 孙颖, 丁一汇. 未来百年东亚夏季降水和季风预测的研究. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 2009, 39: 1487-1504
[9]  9 Li H M, Feng L, Zhou T J. Multi-model projection of July-August climate extreme changes over China under CO2 doubling. Part I: Precipitation. Adv Atmos Sci, 2011, 28: 433-447, doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0013-4??
[10]  10 Feng L, Zhou T J, Wu B, et al. Projection of future precipitation change over China with a high-resolution global atmospheric model. Adv Atmos Sci, 2011, 28: 464-476, doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-1016-x??
[11]  11 Lu R Y, Fu Y H. Intensification of East Asian summer rainfall interannual variability in the twenty-first century simulated by 12 CMIP3 coupled models. J Clim, 2010, 23: 3316-3331, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3130.1??
[12]  12 Kang I S, Jin K, Wang B, et al. Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Clim Dyn, 2002, 19: 383-395??
[13]  13 Jiang D B, Wang H J, Lang X M. Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models. Adv Atmos Sci, 2005, 22: 479-495??
[14]  14 李博, 周天军. 基于IPCC A1B情景的中国未来气候变化预估: 多模式集合结果及其不确定性. 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6: 270-276
[15]  15 姜大膀, 富元海. 2℃全球变暖背景下中国未来气候变化预估. 大气科学, 2012, 36: 234-246
[16]  16 Lu R Y, Lin Z D. Role of subtropical precipitation anomalies in maintaining summertime meridional teleconnections over the western North Pacific and East Asia. J Clim, 2009, 22: 2058-2072??
[17]  17 Lu R Y. Indices of the summertime western North Pacific subtropical high. Adv Atmos Sci, 2002, 19: 1004-1028??
[18]  18 Lu R Y. Associations among the components of the East Asian summer monsoon system in the meridional direction. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 2004, 82: 155-165??
[19]  19 Meehl G A, Stocker T F, Collins W D, et al. Global Climate Projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al, eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 748-845
[20]  20 Zhou T J, Yu R C. Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the global simulated by coupled climate models. J Clim, 2006, 19: 5843-5858??
[21]  21 许崇海, 沈新勇, 徐影. IPCC AR4模式对东亚地区气候模拟能力的分析. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3: 287-291
[22]  22 姜大膀, 张颖, 孙建奇. 中国地区1-3℃变暖的集合预佑分析. 科学通报, 2009, 54: 3870-3877
[23]  23 Zhou T J, Yu R C. Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China. J Geophys Res, 2005, 110: D08104, doi: 10.1029/2004JD005413
[24]  24 Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber K R. The South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J Clim, 2007, 20: 1071-109??

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133