4 Rahmstorf S. The thermohaline ocean circulation—A system with dangerous thresholds? Clim Change, 2000, 46: 247-256
[5]
34 Yeager S G, Shields C A, Large W G, et al. The low-resolution CCSM3. J Clim, 2006, 20: 2545-2566
[6]
35 Otto-Bliesner B L, Brady E C, Clauzet G, et al. Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene climate in CCSM3. J Clim, 2006, 20: 2526-2544
[7]
36 Renold M, Raible C C, Yoshimori M, et al. Simulated resumption of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Quat Sci Rev, 2009, 29: 101-112
38 Mignot J, Frankignoul C. The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the El Ni？o-Southern Oscillation in the Bergen Climate Model. J Clim, 2005, 18: 2361-2375
[10]
39 周天军, Helge D. 卑尔根气候模式中大西洋热盐环流年代际与年际变率的气候影响. 大气科学, 2005, 29: 167-177
5 Jansen E, Overpeck J, Briffa K R, et al. Palaeoclimate. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al, eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 433-498
[13]
6 Vellinga M, Wood R A. Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Clim Change, 2002, 54: 251-267？？
[14]
7 Delworth T, Manabe S, Stouffer R. Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim, 1993, 6: 1993-2011？？
[15]
8 Cubasch U, Meehl G A, Boer G J, et al. Projections of future climate change. In: Houghton J T, Ding Y, Griggs D J, et al, eds. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001. 525-582
[16]
9 Meehl G A, Stocker T F, Collins W D, et al. Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al, eds. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 747-846
[17]
10 Liu Z, Otto-Bliesner B L, He F, et al. Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for B？lling-Aller？d Warming. Science, 2009, 325: 310-314？？
[18]
11 Dickson B, Yashayaev I, Meincke J, et al. Rapid freshening of the deep North Atlantic over the past four decades. Nature, 2002, 416: 832-837？？
[19]
12 Curry R, Dickson B, Yashayaev I. A change in the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature, 2003, 426: 826-829？？
[20]
13 Bryden H L, Longworth H R, Cunningham S A. Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25°N. Nature, 2005, 438: 655-657？？
[21]
14 Cunningham S A, Kabzow T, Rayner D, et al. Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. Science, 2007, 317: 935-937
17 Latif M, Roeckner E, Botzet M, et al. Reconstructing, monitoring, and predicting decadal-scale changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation with sea surface temperature. J Clim, 2004, 17: 1605-1614？？
[25]
18 Latif M, B？ning C, Willebrand J, et al. Is the thermohaline circulation changing? J Clim, 2006, 19: 4631-4637
[26]
19 Knight J R, Allan R J, Folland C K, et al. A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32: L20708 ？？
[27]
20 Wang C, Dong S, Munoz E. Seawater density variation in the north Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Clim Dyn, 2010, 34: 953-968？？
[28]
21 Stocker T F, Johnsen S J. A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw. Paleoceanography, 2003, 18: 1087 ？？
[29]
22 Barker S, Diz P, Vautravers M J, et al. Interhemispheric Atlantic seesaw response during the last deglaciation. Nature, 2009, 457: 1097-1102？？
[30]
23 Chylek, P, Folland C K, Lesins G, et al. Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures. Geophys Res Lett, 2010, 37: L08703？？
[31]
24 Worley S J, Woodruff S D, Reynolds R W, et al. ICOADS Release 2.1 data and products. Int J Climatol, 2005, 25: 823-842
[32]
25 Brohan P, Kennedy J J, Harris I, et al. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res, 2006, 111: D12106
[33]
26 Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, et al. A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J Geophys Res, 2001, 106: 23947-23963？？
[34]
27 Smith T M, Reynolds R W, Peterson T C, et al. Improvements to NOAA''s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J Clim, 2008, 21: 2283-2296？？
[35]
28 Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 1996, 77: 437-471？？
[36]
29 Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, et al. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res, 2002, 108: 4407
[37]
30 Kaplan A, Cane M, Kushnir Y, et al. Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. J Geophys Res, 1998, 103: 18567-18589 ？？
[38]
31 Reynolds R W, Rayner N A, Smith T M, et al. An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim, 2002, 15: 1609-1625？？
33 Stouffer R J, Yin J, Gregory J M, et al. Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes. J Clim, 2006, 19: 1365-1387？？
