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中国西北干旱区夏季径流量对大气0℃层高度变化的响应

, PP. 1767-1777

Keywords: 径流量,0℃层高度,弹性系数,区域差异,西北干旱区

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Abstract:

?基于1960~2009年夏季(6~8月)西北干旱区四个典型区域的8个探空站逐日观测资料和9条河流出山口逐日径流资料,利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,对西北干旱区近50a来夏季河流径流量和0℃层高度时间序列变化趋势、突变时间及其显著性进行分析,并借助线性回归和弹性系数法,建立二者的定量关系.主要结论如下:(1)近50a来,天山北坡和祁连山北坡夏季0℃层高度上升趋势显著,天山南坡上升趋势不明显,昆仑山北坡则以2.33ma-1的速率显著下降,而同期的天山南、北坡和祁连山北坡夏季径流量增加趋势显著,昆仑山北坡增加趋势不明显,除昆仑山北坡外,其余三区二者之间具有相同的变化趋势;(2)突变分析表明,各典型区域之间两要素发生突变的时间并不完全相同,在同一典型区域内也不尽一致;(3)四个典型区域夏季径流量与0℃层高度二者之间均表现出显著的正相关,除祁连山北坡通过0.05显著性检验水平外,其余三区皆通过0.01显著性检验水平,说明西北干旱区夏季0℃层高度的升降已成为影响河流径流量变化的一个至关重要的因素;(4)昆仑山北坡、天山南坡、天山北坡和祁连山北坡夏季径流量对0℃层高度变化的敏感性系数分别为7.19,6.63,3.80和2.79,表明西北干旱区夏季径流量对0℃层高度变化的敏感性存在区域差异,河流冰川融水径流补给比重不同是产生区域差异的直接原因,而区域之间冰川规模有异是根本原因.

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