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蓝色北极情景下西北太平洋台风会增多吗?

, PP. 1781-1787

Keywords: 蓝色北极,海冰,气候变化,西北太平洋,台风

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Abstract:

?未来的全球变暖情景下,西北太平洋台风活动会有怎样的变化?利用CMIP3模式在IPCCA1B情景下对未来气候的预估结果,得到全球变暖之北极夏季(September)无海冰时的一种情景,即“蓝色北极”.利用相应的海温场和CO2含量驱动一个全球大气环流模式,来对北极夏季无海冰时的西北太平洋台风生成环境做出数值模拟.试验结果表明,蓝色北极情况下,6~10月西北太平洋的大气环流和海洋环流都发生了明显变化,影响台风活动的主要环境要素:纬向风垂直切变和向外射出长波辐射空间分布的变化分别有利于台风源地向偏西、偏北转变;与台风频数有密切联系的关键区中上述量的变化且皆利于台风频次的减少.热带气旋生成潜力指数的变化表现为西北太平洋东部减小,而西部增大.因而呈现了非常复杂的变化格局.

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