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北大西洋涛动的纬向位置与大西洋-欧洲阻塞活动的关系以及对欧洲天气的可能影响

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-014-4949-6, PP. 2565-2575

Keywords: 北大西洋涛动,大气阻塞,温度,降水

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Abstract:

?近几十年来,北大西洋涛动(NAO)出现了明显的年代际东移现象.而近十几年欧洲地区出现了频繁灾害性天气,它是否与NAO东移现象有关不清楚.本文拟通过NAO逐日指数挑选出1950~2011年冬季的所有in-situ(原地)NAO事件,并将其划分为偏东型(ENAO)和偏西型(WNAO),然后研究了两种类型的NAO事件与大西洋-欧洲阻塞事件的关系以及它们对欧洲大陆气温和降水的影响.结果发现:当NAO是负(正)位相时,大西洋-欧洲阻塞呈西北-东南(西南-东北)分布,而且当NAO为负位相时,阻塞有两个活动中心:格陵兰阻塞和欧洲大陆阻塞.当NAO负位相事件偏东(西)时,阻塞趋于在欧洲大陆(格陵兰)产生.当NAO正位相事件偏东(西)时,阻塞趋于在南欧的下(上)游地区产生.同时发现偏东型的负位相(ENAO-)会引起欧洲大陆大幅度的降温,并且范围和强度都要比偏西型负位相(WNAO-)影响的要大,特别是它对中欧、东欧及南欧的降温影响更显著.而偏东型正位相(ENAO+)和偏西型正位相(WNAO+)会引起欧洲大陆升温,但偏东型正位相(ENAO+)引起的升温幅度较大且范围更偏东部和南部.此外还发现NAO+事件对应的欧洲地区降水正距平呈现出单支分布,并且ENAO+对应的降水更偏欧洲北部.而NAO-事件期间降水则呈南北双支结构分布,但由于ENAO-事件引起的大幅降温,使得欧洲南部特别是地中海地区容易发生极端降雪天气.最后,本文还讨论了偏东型和偏西型NAO事件产生的可能的物理机制.

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