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气候序列的均一化—定量评估气候变化的基础

, PP. 2101-2111

Keywords: 气候序列,非均一性,均一化,气候变化趋势,气候极值

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Abstract:

?长期气象观测序列是反映气候变化的最基本依据.然而,几乎所有气象站都要经历迁址或观测仪器、规则和方法等方面的变更,导致观测序列相应时段的系统性偏差.均一化就是要校订这类系统性偏差,以确切评估时间序列中的变化趋势.近年来随着气候变化研究的深入,均一化也从早期主要着眼于平均态校订发展到更注重极端天气气候信息的校订.本文结合理想的和实际的气候序列分析,演示均一化的基本思路;简介近年来就中国区域气候序列的均一化研究取得的一些新认识,并就该领域存在的(特别是涉及气候极值或极端天气以及多要素物理联系等方面)问题,展望进一步研究.

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