全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

中国西南地区后冬降水的统计降尺度模型

, PP. 1020-1033

Keywords: 统计降尺度,中国西南地区,后冬降水,偏相关

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

?对西南后冬降水进行了分析,并建立了统计降尺度模型.采用偏相关的分析方法,选取了控制该区域降水的强迫因子.结果表明:影响西南地区后冬降水的强迫因子主要有两个:欧洲西部海表面气压(SNAO)和热带西太平洋海表面温度(WPT).SNAO反映了北大西洋涛动(NAO)南侧极点的变率,此因子通过激发南欧亚遥相关,影响南支槽强度来对西南地区后冬降水变率产生影响.WPT反映的是ENSO在西太平洋的信号,其通过太平洋-东亚遥相关,在中国南部激发反气旋(气旋)环流异常,使得西南地区盛行下沉(上升)气流而抑制(促进)后冬降水的产生.基于SNAO和WPT建立的统计降尺度模型较好的拟合了西南地区整体和逐站的后冬降水变率,在独立检验阶段统计模型也体现了可靠性.该统计降尺度模型未来可应用于季节预测数值模型的输出,以期望于提高对中国西南后冬降水的预测能力.

References

[1]  王斌, 李跃清. 2010. 2010年秋冬季西南地区严重干旱与南支槽关系分析. 高原山地气象研究, 30: 26-35
[2]  徐寒列, 李建平, 冯娟, 等. 2012. 冬季北大西洋涛动与中国西南地区降水的不对称关系. 气象学报, 70: 1276-1291
[3]  杨辉, 宋洁, 晏红明, 等. 2012. 2009/2010年冬季云南严重干旱的原因分析. 气候与环境研究, 17: 315-326
[4]  Barriopedro D, Gouveia C M, Trigo R M, et al. 2012. The 2009/10 Drought in China: Possible causes and impacts on vegetation. J Hydrometeorol, 13: 1251-1267
[5]  Feng J, Li J P. 2013a. Contrasting impacts of two types of ENSO on the boreal spring Hadley circulation. J Clim, 26: 4773-4789
[6]  Feng J, Li J P, Xie F. 2013b. Long-term variation of the principal mode of boreal spring Hadley circulation linked to SST over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. J Clim, 26: 532-544
[7]  Feng L, Li T, Yu W. 2014. Cause of severe droughts in Southwest China during 1951-2010. Clim Dyn, 43: 2033-2042
[8]  Feng R, Li J P, Wang J C. 2011. Regime change of the boreal summer Hadley circulation and its connection with the tropical SST. J Clim, 24: 3867-3877
[9]  Fowler H, Blenkinsop S, Tebaldi C. 2007. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. Int J Climatol, 27: 1547-1578
[10]  Gill A E. 1980. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc, 106: 447-462
[11]  Gu W, Wang L, Li W, et al. 2014. Influence of the tropical Pacific east-west thermal contrast on the autumn precipitation in South China. Int J Climatol, doi: 10.1002/joc.4075
[12]  Salathé E P. 2003. Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin. Int J Climatol, 23: 887-901
[13]  Wang B, Wu R, Fu X. 2000. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim, 13: 1517-1536
[14]  Wang L, Chen W, Zhou W. 2014. Assessment of Future Drought in Southwest China based on CMIP5 Multimodel Projections. Adv Atmos Sci, 31: 1035-1050
[15]  Webster P J. 1972. Response of the tropical atmosphere to local, steady forcing. Mon Weather Rev, 100: 518-541
[16]  Weng H, Behera S K, Yamagata T. 2009. Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Ni?o Modoki and El Ni?o events. Clim Dyn, 32: 663-674
[17]  Wilby R L. 1997. Non-stationarity in daily precipitation series: Implications for GCM downscaling using atmospheric circulation indices. Int J Climatol, 17: 439-454
[18]  Wilby R L, Wigley T. 2000. Precipitation predictors for downscaling: Observed and general circulation model relationships. Int J Climatol, 20: 641-661
[19]  Wu Z, Wang B, Li J P, et al. 2009. An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J Geophys Res, 114: D18120, doi:10.1029/2009JD011733
[20]  Wu Z, Li J P, Jiang Z, et al. 2012. Possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the strengthening relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and ENSO. Int J Climatol, 32: 794-800
[21]  Yarnal B, Comrie A C, Frakes B, et al. 2001. Developments and prospects in synoptic climatology. Int J Climatol, 21: 1923-1950
[22]  Yu M, Li Q, Hayes M J, et al. 2014. Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index: 1951-2010? Int J Climatol, 34: 545-558
[23]  Zhang L, Xiao J, Li J, et al. 2012. The 2010 spring drought reduced primary productivity in southwestern China. Environ Res Lett, 7: 045706
[24]  Zhang M, He J, Wang B, et al. 2013a. Extreme drought changes in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009. J Geogr Sci, 23: 3-16
[25]  Zhang R, Sumi A. 2002. Moisture circulation over East Asia during El Ni?o episode in northern winter, spring and autumn. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 80: 213-227
[26]  Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M. 1999. A diagnostic study of the impact of El Nino on the precipitation in China. Adv Atmos Sci, 16: 229-241
[27]  Zhang W, Jin F F, Li J P, et al. 2011. Contrasting impacts of two-type El Nino over the Western North Pacific during boreal autumn. J Meteorol Soc Jpn, 89: 563-569
[28]  Zhang W, Jin F F, Zhao J X, et al. 2013b. The Possible Influence of a Nonconventional El Ni?o on the Severe Autumn Drought of 2009 in Southwest China. J Clim, 26: 8392-8405
[29]  Zhang W, Jin F F, Turner A. 2014a. Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift. Geophys Res Lett, 41: 4020
[30]  Zhang W, Wang L, Xiang B, et al. 2014b. Impacts of two types of La Nina on the NAO during boreal winter. Clim Dyn, 41: 4026-4026
[31]  Zorita E, Storch H V. 1999. The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: Comparison with more complicated methods. J Clim, 12: 2474-2489
[32]  郭荣芬, 高安生, 杨素雨. 2010. 低纬高原两次冬季南支槽强降水的对比分析. 大气科学学报, 33: 82-88
[33]  黄荣辉, 刘永, 王林, 等. 2012. 2009年秋至2010年春我国西南地区严重干旱的成因分析. 大气科学, 36: 443-457
[34]  李建平, 任荣彩, 齐义泉, 等. 2013. 亚洲区域海-陆-气相互作用对全球和亚洲气候变化的作用研究进展. 大气科学, 37: 518-538
[35]  刘建刚, 谭徐明, 万金红, 等. 2011. 2010年西南特大干旱及典型场次旱灾对比分析. 中国水利, 9: 17-19
[36]  秦剑, 潘里娜, 石鲁平. 1991. 南支槽与强冷空气结合对云南冬季天气的影响. 气象, 17: 39-43
[37]  宋洁, 杨辉, 李崇银. 2011. 2009/2010年冬季云南严重干旱原因的进一步分析. 大气科学, 35: 1009-1019
[38]  索渺清, 丁一汇. 2009. 冬半年副热带南支西风槽结构和演变特征研究. 大气科学, 33: 425-442
[39]  陶云, 黄玮, 郑建萌, 等. 2014. 云南冬季降水的演变特征及成因分析. 高原气象, 33: 130-139
[40]  Guo Y, Li J P, Li Y. 2011. Statistically downscaled summer rainfall over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett, 4: 191-198
[41]  Guo Y, Li J P, Li Y. 2012. A time-scale decomposition approach to statistically downscale summer rainfall over North China. J Clim, 25: 572-591
[42]  Guo Y, Li J P, Li Y. 2014. Seasonal forecasting of North China summer rainfall using a statistical downscaling model. J Appl Meteor Climatol, 53: 1739-1749
[43]  Hewitson B, Crane R. 2006. Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: Precipitation downscaling over South Africa. Int J Climatol, 26: 1315-1337
[44]  Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 77: 437-471
[45]  Li J P, Wang J X. 2003a. A new North Atlantic Oscillation index and its variability. Adv Atmos Sci, 20: 661-676
[46]  Li J P, Wang J X. 2003b. A modified zonal index and its physical sense. Geophys Res Lett, 30: 1632
[47]  Li J P, Sun C, Jin F F. 2013. NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability. Geophys Res Lett, 40: 5497-5502
[48]  Li Y, Smith I. 2009. A statistical downscaling model for southern Australia winter rainfall. J Clim, 22: 1142-1158
[49]  Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, et al. 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res Atmos, 108: 4403

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133