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1952~2007年中国白蜡树春季物候时空变化分析

, PP. 701-710

Keywords: 物候期,物候模型,展叶始期,白蜡树

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Abstract:

?为研究植物物候期的地理分布及其形成原因,揭示中国物候变化的时空格局,选取中国境内分布较为广泛、观测比较充分的白蜡树(FraxinuschinensisRoxb.)为研究对象,以“中国物候观测网”12个站点的白蜡树展叶始期资料和对应气象资料为数据源,建立并检验了模拟白蜡树展叶始期的春季物候过程模型.利用该模型,重建了1952~2007年间研究区白蜡树完整的展叶始期序列,分析了白蜡展叶始期的时空变化规律.结果表明:过程模型考虑了芽发育速率在休眠期和静止期对气温的不同响应,反映了植物的生理机制,在大区域和长时间尺度均能够准确地模拟白蜡树展叶始期;在温带地区植物春季物候期的地理分布由日平均气温的空间格局决定;1952~2007年,白蜡树的展叶始期在绝大部分地区呈提前趋势,只有极小部分区域呈推迟趋势,其总体的平均趋势为-1.1d/10a,该结果与北半球其他地区春季物候的提前趋势一致;白蜡树展叶始期变化存在明显的区域分异,呈现“北高南低”的区域格局,华北地区有最大的-2.0d/10a的显著提前趋势(p<0.01),东北和华北地区提前趋势分别为-1.5d/10a和-1.4d/10a(p<0.01),华东和华中地区的平均提前趋势较小,平均仅-1.0d/10a(p<0.05),西南和华南地区呈最小的不显著提前趋势.

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