See Greenwood, Peter W., Alan Abrahamse, Selective Incapacitation: Report Prepared for the National Institute of Justice , Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation,1982, p. xix.
[2]
See Franklin E. Zimring, Gordon Hawkins, Incapacitation: PenaL Confinement and the Restraint of Crime, Oxford University Press,1995, p.48.
[3]
Ibid., at 48.
[4]
Norval Morris, The Future of Imprisonment, University of Chicago Press,1974, p.72—73.
[5]
Marcia R. Chaiken, Jan M. Chaiken, “〇ffender Types and Public Policy”30 Crime and Delinquency 195（1984）.
[6]
Frank E. Zimring, Gordon J. Hawkins, Supra note 7, at 1.
[7]
陈兴良：“一般预防的观念转变”，《中国法学》2000年第5期。
[8]
See Anthony N. Doob, Cheryl Marie Webster,“Sentence Severity and Crime: Accepting the Null Hypothesis”，30 Crime and Justice: A Review of Research,143（2003）.
[9]
See Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, Daniel Nagin, Deterrence and Incapacitation: Estimating the Effects of Criminal Sanctions on Crime Rates, National Academy Press,1978.
[10]
See Philip J. Cook, “Research in Criminal Deterrence: Laying the Groundwork for the Second Decade”,2 Crime and Justice,211—268（1980）.
[11]
Daniel S. Nagin,“Criminal Deterrence Research at the Outset of the Twenty—First Century”，23 Crime and Justice,1（1998）.
[12]
Patrick A. Langan, David P. Farrington, Crime and Justice in the United States and in England and Wales, 1981—96，U. S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statis- tics, 1998.
[13]
这三个实证研究参见 Thomas B. Marvell, Carlisle E. Moody, Jr., “Prison population growth and crime reduction”,10 Journal of Quantitative Criminology,109（1994）； Barry Reilly, Robert Witt,“Crime, Deter- rence and Unemployment in England and Wales: An Empirical Analysis”,48 Bulletin of Economic Research,137—159（1996）； Steven D. Levitt, “The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Over- crowding Litigation”，111 Quarterly Journal of Economics,319—351（1996）.
[14]
Andrew von Hirsch, Anthony E. Bottoms, Elizabeth Burney, P—O Wikstrom, Criminal Deterrence and Sentence Severity: An Analysis of Recent Research, Hart,1999.
[15]
Paul Gendreau, Tracy Little, Claire Geggin, “Meta —Analysis of the Predictors of Adult Offender Recidivism: WhatWorks!”34： Criminology ,575—608（1996）.
[16]
Anthony N. Doob? Cheryl Marie Webster, Supra note 26.
[17]
Daniel S. Nagin, Francis T. Cullen, Cheryl Lero Jonson, “Imprisonment and Reoffending”，38 Crime and Justice: A Review of Research ,115—200（2009）.
[18]
Marsh Jeffrey, Max Singer, “Soft Statistics and Hard Questions”，Mimeographed discussion paper HI—1712— DP. Crotion—on—Hudson, Hudson Institute,1972.
[19]
Stevens H. Clarke, “Getting Them Out of Circulation: Does Incarceration of Juvenile Offenders Reduce Crime?”,65 Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology,528—535（1974）.
[20]
Shlomo Shinnar, Reuel Shinnar,“The Effects of the Criminal Justice System on the Control of Crime: A Quantitative Approach”9 Law and Society Review,581—612（1975）.
[21]
Stephan Van Dine, Simon Dinitz, John Conrad, “The Incapacitation of the Dangerous Offender: A Statistical Experiment”，14 Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency,22—34（1977）.
[22]
See Frank E. Zimring, Gordon J. Hawkins, Supra note 9, at 32—35.
[23]
Peter W. Greenwood, Allan Abrahamse, Supra note 8, at xix.
[24]
See Elsa Y. Chen,“Impacts of ‘Three Strikes and You''re Out’ on Crime Trends in California and Throughout the United States”，24 Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice,345（2008）； Thomas B. Marvell, Carlisle E. Moody, “The Lethal Effects of Three —Strikes Laws”30 Journal of Legal Studies,89-106（2001）； etc.
[25]
Franklin E. Zimring, Gordon Hawkins, Sam Kamin, Punishment and Democracy: Three Strikes and You Are Out in California, Oxford University Press,2001, pp.93—94.
[26]
James Austin, John Clark, Patricia Hardyman, D. Alan Henry, Three Strikes and You''re Out: Thelmplementation and Impart of Strike Laws, https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffilesl/nij/grants/181297.pdf, 最后访问日期：2013年7月30日。
See Thomas Gabor, The Prediction of Criminal Behavior: Statistical Approaches , University of Toronto Press,1986； Dien J. Champion, Measuring Offender Risk:A Criminal Justice Sourcebook , Greenwood Press, 1994； Frank E. Zimring, Gordon J. Hawkins, Supra note 9, at 48—49； Alex R. Piquero, David P. Farrington, Alfred Blumstein,“The Criminal Career Paradigm”30 Crime and justice: A review of research,359—506（2003）.
[36]
See Frank E. Zimring, Gordon J. Hawkins, Supra note 9, at 49.
[37]
储槐植：《刑事一体化》，法律出版社2004年版，页58。
[38]
英国牛津大学的Julian V. Roberts教授认为累犯从严和量刑均衡是各国刑法量刑部分的两个通行做法。See Julian V. Roberts, Punishing Persistent Offenders : Exploring Community and Offender Perspectives, Oxford University Press,2008，p. x.
