This paper deals with the initial modeling of water salinity and its diffusion into the lakes during lock operation on the Panama Canal. A hybrid operational model was implemented using the AnyLogic software simulation environment. This was accomplished by generating an operational discrete-event simulation model and a continuous simulation model based on differential equations, which modeled the salinity diffusion in the lakes. This paper presents that unique application and includes the effective integration of lock operations and its impact on the environment. 1. Introduction The Panama Canal currently carries 4 percent of the world’s trade goods, and it is an important competitor in some very important shipping routes. For example, the canal currently handles about 16% of the United States maritime trade, and more than 25% of the containerized trade between north east Asia and the east coast of the United States [1, 2]. Within the Republic of Panama, the Canal is responsible for the growth of the terminal cities of Panama and Colon (these cities and their metropolitan areas have 70% of the population of the Republic of Panama). The navigational channel of the Panama Canal is about 50 miles (80？km) long and extends from the Caribbean Sea to the Pacific ocean (see Figure 1). The canal includes Gatun Lake, a fresh water lake which has a surface area of 436？Km2 (168.4？mi2) at 26？m (85？ft) above mean sea level. A series of locks on the waterway is used to raise and lower ships transiting to and from Gatun Lake to the oceans by moving water into and out of the lake using the force of gravity [3, 4]. In addition, Gatun Lake is utilized to provide fresh water to the terminal cities of Panama and Colon. Figure 1: Schematic of the Panama Canal. Currently the canal is operating at almost 95% of its maximum sustainable capacity which limits its ability to capture the increasing demand that will occur within the next 50 years [5]. Additionally, port operators at both sides of the Canal are betting on larger and more efficient post-Panamax ships (e.g., “ships that do not fit in the canal, such as supertankers and the largest modern container ships”) [6]. Therefore, Panama has started the expansion of the Panama canal. This project will double the capacity of the Panama Canal by 2014 by allowing more and larger ships to transit. The Panama Canal expansion through a third set of locks presents new challenges. One challenge is the potential increase in the salinity of Gatun Lake above permissible levels. Using this scenario we designed and propose to implement a
References
[1]
L. A. G. Franzese, L. O. Abdenur, D. Storks, R. C. Botter, and A. R. Cano, “Simulating the panama canal: Present and future,” in Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, pp. 1835–1837, December 2004.
[2]
L. Lozano, “Still going strong,” The Journal of Commerce, vol. 6, no. 48, p. 24, 2005.
[3]
H. R. A. Alvarez, D. Solis, A. R. S. Cano, L. Rabelo, and S. Sala-Diakanda, “The system dynamics simulation of the expansion of the Panama Canal,” International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 17–28, 2009.
[4]
Global Security, 2009, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/panama-canal-transit.htm.
[5]
Panama Canal Authority and Maritime Authority of Panama, “Almost full capacity,” in Panama Maritime Handbook 2005/6, pp. 7–13, 2005.
[6]
Y. Sandoval, “The dilemma of the expansion costs,” Tech. Rep. 409, Martes Financiero -La Prensa, 2005.
[7]
A. Borshchev and A. Filippov, “From system dynamics and discrete event to practical agent based modeling: reasons, techniques, tools,” in Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, UK, July 2004.
[8]
DHI Water & Environment, “Review of Saltwater Intrusion and Mitigation Studies and Models for Proposed Post Panamax Locks,” 2005, http://www.pancanal.com/esp/plan/estudios/0276-exec.pdf.
[9]
T. Parchure, S. Whilhelms, S. Sarruff, and W. McAnally, “Salinity intrusion in the panama canal,” Report from the Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, 2000.
[10]
Panama Canal Authority, 2005, http://www.pancanal.com/eng/maritime/notices/n01-05.pdf.
[11]
B. Bunch, B. Johnson, and M. Sarruff, “Panama lakes water quality modeling study,” Tech. Rep. 03-XX, Report of the Army Corps of Engineering, Engineer Research and Development Center, 2003.
[12]
T. Jongeling, “Salt water intrusion analysis—future situation: post-panamax locks,” Report of Delft Hydraulics for the Panama Canal Authority, 2003.
[13]
B. A. Kokya and T. A. Kokya, “Proposing a formula for evaporation measurement from salt water resources,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 22, no. 12, pp. 2005–2012, 2008.
[14]
F. I. Morton, “Practical estimates of lake evaporation,” Journal of Climate & Applied Meteorology, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 371–387, 1986.
[15]
F. Morton, “Discussion of “Hydrologic balance model using neutron probe data” by Richard H. Cuenca (November, 1988, Vol. 114, No. 4),” Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, vol. 117, no. 3, p. 451, 1991.
[16]
R. M. Price, W. K. Nuttle, B. J. Cosby, and P. K. Swart, “Variation and uncertainty in evaporation from a subtropical estuary: Florida Bay,” Estuaries and Coasts, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 497–506, 2007.
[17]
M. F. Sadek, M. M. Shahin, and C. J. Stigter, “Evaporation from the reservoir of the High Aswan Dam, Egypt: a new comparison of relevant methods with limited data,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 56, no. 1-2, pp. 57–66, 1997.
[18]
M. Garifullin, A. Borshchev, and T. Popkov, “Using anylogic and agent based approach to model consumer market,” in Proceedings of the 6th EUROSIM Congress on Modelling and Simulation, 2007.
[19]
Y. G. Karpov, R. I. Ivanovski, N. I. Voropai, and D. B. Popov, “Hierarchical modeling of electric power system expansion by anyLogic simulation software,” in Proceedings of the IEEE Russia Power Tech (PowerTech '05), June 2005.
[20]
C. Wartha, M. Peev, A. Borshchev, and A. Filippov, “Decision support tool—supply chain,” in Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, pp. 1297–1301, December 2002.
[21]
D. N. Moriasi, J. G. Arnold, M. W. Van Liew, R. L. Bingner, R. D. Harmel, and T. L. Veith, “Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations,” Transactions of the ASABE, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 885–900, 2007.
[22]
Panama Canal Authority, 2005, http://www.pancanal.com/eng/plan/documentos/propuesta/acp-expansion-proposal.pdf.
