It is important to accurately estimate rainfall for effective use of water resources and optimal planning of water structures. For this purpose, the models were developed to estimate rainfall in Isparta using the data-mining process. The different input combinations having 1-, 2-, 3- and 4-input parameters were tried using the rainfall values of Senirkent, Uluborlu, E?irdir, and Yalva? stations in Isparta. The most appropriate algorithm was determined as multilinear regression among the models developed with various data-mining algorithms. The input parameters of Multilinear Regression model were the monthly rainfall values of Senirkent, Uluborlu and E?irdir stations. The relative error of this model was calculated as 0.7%. It was shown that the data mining process can be used in estimation of missing rainfall values. 1. Introduction The meteorological events affect permanently human life. Considering the meteorological phenomena, which have no possibility of intervention, they cause the important results in human life, accurate estimation and analysis of these variables are also very important. Precipitation, which is generating flow, is an important parameter. The occurrence of extreme rainfall in a short time causes significant events that affect human life such as flood. However, in the event of insufficient rainfall in long period occurs drought. Thus, rainfall estimation is very important in terms of effects on human life, water resources, and water usage areas. However, rainfall affected by the geographical and regional variations and features is very difficult to estimate. Nowadays, there are many researches about artificial intelligence methods used in the estimation of rainfall [1–7]. Partal et al. [8] developed rainfall estimation models using artificial neural networks and wavelet transform methods. Bodri and ?ermák [9] evaluated the applicability of neural networks for precipitation prediction. Chang et al. [10] applied a modified method, combining the inverse distance method and fuzzy theory, to precipitation interpolation. They used genetic algorithm to determine the parameters of fuzzy membership functions, which represent the relationship between the location without rainfall records and its surrounding rainfall gauges. They worked to minimize the estimated error of precipitation with the optimization process. One of the aims of storing this data in databases and receiving data from many sources is to convert raw data into information at present. This process is called as data-mining (DM) process of converting data into information. In
References
[1]
T. B. Trafalis, M. B. Richman, A. White, and B. Santosa, “Data mining techniques for improved WSR-88D rainfall estimation,” Computers and Industrial Engineering, vol. 43, no. 4, pp. 775–786, 2002.
[2]
K. C. Luk, J. E. Ball, and A. Sharma, “An application of artificial neural networks for rainfall forecasting,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, vol. 33, no. 6-7, pp. 683–693, 2001.
[3]
M. Zhang, J. Fulcher, and R. A. Scofield, “Rainfall estimation using artificial neural network group,” Neurocomputing, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 97–115, 1997.
[4]
T. Shoji and H. Kitaura, “Statistical and geostatistical analysis of rainfall in central Japan,” Computers and Geosciences, vol. 32, no. 8, pp. 1007–1024, 2006.
[5]
M. C. V. Ramírez, H. F. C. Velho, and N. J. Ferreira, “Artificial neural network technique for rainfall forecasting applied to the S?o Paulo region,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 301, no. 1–4, pp. 146–162, 2005.
[6]
R. S. V. Teegavarapu and V. Chandramouli, “Improved weighting methods, deterministic and stochastic data-driven models for estimation of missing precipitation records,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 312, no. 1–4, pp. 191–206, 2005.
[7]
Y.-M. Chiang, F. J. Chang, B. J. D. Jou, and P. F. Lin, “Dynamic ANN for precipitation estimation and forecasting from radar observations,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 334, no. 1-2, pp. 250–261, 2007.
[8]
T. Partal, E. Kahya, and K. C???zo?lu, “Estimation of precipitation data using artificial neural networks and wavelet transform,” ITU Journal, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 73–85, 2008 (Turkish).
[9]
L. Bodri and V. ?ermák, “Prediction of extreme precipitation using a neural network: application to summer flood occurrence in Moravia,” Advances in Engineering Software, vol. 31, no. 5, pp. 311–321, 2000.
[10]
C. L. Chang, S. L. Lo, and S. L. Yu, “Applying fuzzy theory and genetic algorithm to interpolate precipitation,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 314, no. 1–4, pp. 92–104, 2005.
[11]
C. Damle and A. Yalcin, “Flood prediction using time series data mining,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 333, no. 2–4, pp. 305–316, 2007.
[12]
K.-W. Chau and N. Muttil, “Data mining and multivariate statistical analysis for ecological system in coastal waters,” Journal of Hydroinformatics, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 305–317, 2007.
[13]
E. P. Roz, Water quality modeling and rainfall estimation: a data driven approach [M.S. thesis], University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, USA, 2011.
[14]
M. E. Keskin, ?. Terzi, and E. U. Kü?üksille, “Data mining process for integrated evaporation model,” Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, vol. 135, no. 1, pp. 39–43, 2009.
[15]
?. Terzi, “Monthly river flow forecasting by data mining process,” in Knowledge-Oriented Applications in Data Mining, K. Funatsu, Ed., InTech, Rijeka, Croatia, 2011.
[16]
?. Terzi, E. U. Kü?üksille, G. Ergin, and A. ?lker, “Estimation of solar radiation using data mining process,” SDU International Technologic Science, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 29–37, 2011 (Turkish).
[17]
R. S. V. Teegavarapu, “Estimation of missing precipitation records integrating surface interpolation techniques and spatio-temporal association rules,” Journal of Hydroinformatics, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 133–146, 2009.
[18]
D. P. Solomatine and K. N. Dulal, “Model trees as an alternative to neural networks in rainfall-runoff modelling,” Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 399–412, 2003.
[19]
M. E. Keskin, D. Taylan, and E. U. Kucuksille, “Data mining process for modeling hydrological time series,” Hydrology Research. In press.
[20]
E. Simoudis, “Reality cheek for data mining,” IEEE Expert-Intelligent Systems and their Applications, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 26–33, 1996.
S. Zhang, C. Zhang, and Q. Yang, “Data preparation for data mining,” Applied Artificial Intelligence, vol. 17, no. 5-6, pp. 375–381, 2003.
[23]
D. N. Moriasi, J. G. Arnold, M. W. Van Liew, R. L. Bingner, R. D. Harmel, and T. L. Veith, “Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations,” Transactions of the ASABE, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 885–900, 2007.
[24]
J. Piri, S. Amin, A. Moghaddamnia, A. Keshavarz, D. Han, and R. Remesan, “Daily pan evaporation modeling in a hot and dry climate,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 14, no. 8, pp. 803–811, 2009.
[25]
S. Lallahem and J. Mania, “A nonlinear rainfall-runoff model using neural network technique: example in fractured porous media,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, vol. 37, no. 9-10, pp. 1047–1061, 2003.