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冰川冻土  2013 

气象极值变化及其导致的农业气象灾害趋势分析——以甘肃省为例

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0112, PP. 999-1006

Keywords: 气象极值变化,甘肃省,农业气象灾害,趋势

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Abstract:

依据甘肃省62个气象站1960-2005年的地面气候资料,分析农作物生育期(3-10月)内气象要素极值的变化趋势,并用主成分分析方法研究了该变化对农业气象灾害发生趋势的影响.结果表明与温度相关的气象要素极值表现出了同平均气温类似的显著上升趋势,其中降水相关的气象要素极值变化说明甘肃省降水结构发生了改变,极端性有所减弱;其他相关要素中,最大风速存在明显下降趋势,蒸发量呈下降趋势、日照时数呈上升趋势,但都不够显著.大部分气象极值的变化与农业气象灾害的变化呈正相联系,只有很少部分气象极值的变化与农业气象灾害的变化呈反相联系.综合分析这些气象极值在甘肃省范围内的变化趋势,揭示出未来甘肃省干旱灾害倾向于加剧,而洪涝灾害趋于减轻.

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