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冰川冻土  2013 

两种判断月干旱过程的方法在黄河流域的对比研究

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0109, PP. 968-977

Keywords: 黄河流域,干旱,对比分析

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Abstract:

利用黄河流域160个气象站1961-2010年逐日综合气象干旱指数(CI)指数,对比分析两种用逐日CI指数判断月干旱过程的方法.结果表明对重大干旱事件个例来说,两种方法都能大体描述事件的月干旱过程,但干旱的强度和范围有所不同.从干旱发生的范围来看,两种结果的差别较小,方法I的识别结果范围更大、更连续,特别是对青海旱情的判断常常比实际范围大;而方法II的识别结果范围稍小,大体上能反应干旱的整体范围,但有时也偶尔会遗漏小部分旱区;从干旱发生的强度来看,方法I对干旱事实的描述偏轻,而方法II以重-特旱为主,与实际情况更相符.从对黄河流域近50a月干旱频率的分析结果来看,两种方法一致表明黄河流域分界线以西的地区常年不容易发生干旱,而对于分界线以东地区,两种方法的统计结果有较大差异.方法I的结果表明,分界线以东地区干旱的月发生频率较大,其中,轻旱的月发生频率最大,其次为中旱,而重旱和特旱的发生频率很小;方法II的结果表明,分界线以东地区干旱的月发生频率在60%~80%左右,其中重旱的月发生频率最大,其次为中旱,轻旱和特旱的发生频率很小.总体来说,方法II对黄河流域月干旱情况的评估结果与干旱实际情况更一致.

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