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冰川冻土  2013 

四川省水稻气候干旱灾害风险研究

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0116, PP. 1036-1043

Keywords: 四川,水稻,气候干旱,风险评估

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Abstract:

水稻生育时期内水分亏缺,是形成水稻气候干旱的首要条件.利用四川省1960-2010年159个气象站逐日降水量、日平均气温资料和水稻生育时期资料,以降水距平百分率、相对湿润度指数作为干旱指标,分析四川省水稻分蘖期、拔节孕穗期和抽穗扬花期不同气候干旱等级发生概率,构建水稻气候干旱灾害风险模型,评估四川省水稻分蘖期、拔节孕穗期和抽穗扬花期以及整个生育时期的气候干旱风险.结果表明四川省水稻拔节孕穗期和抽穗扬花期气候干旱风险较高,降水距平百分率和相对湿润度指数的风险区划结果并不完全相同,但分布趋势相近.水稻整个生育时期,四川盆地和东北部部分地区干旱风险较高,川南地区干旱风险相对较小.

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