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冰川冻土  2014 

未来50a中国地区冻土面积分布变化

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0001, PP. 1-8

Keywords: CMIP3,中国冻土,气候变化,冻土变化

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Abstract:

在检验CMIP3模式比较计划中模式在中国地区的温度模拟效果的基础上,选取模拟效果相对较好的HadCM3、EACHE5模拟结果,采用Kudryavtsev方法,应用数字化土壤和植被资料,借助Arc-GIS,对未来50a中国地区在A2情景下的冻土空间变化趋势进行了模拟计算.结果表明,在A2情景下,未来50a中国地区的冻土呈现出退缩趋势,在2050年,多年冻土在青藏高原地区的巴颜喀拉山-唐古拉山之间、冈底斯山地区出现退化,中国的冻土面积较2006年减少约10.7%.

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