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冰川冻土  2014 

1961-2013年新疆不同时间尺度降水量的气候特征及其历史演变规律

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0163, PP. 1363-1375

Keywords: 新疆,时间尺度,降水量,气候特征,变化特征,突变,周期

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Abstract:

利用新疆1961-2013年资料完整的89个气象观测站降水量资料,应用数理统计、线性趋势、突变、小波分析等方法,对新疆降水量的时空分布和变化特征以及突变性、周期性特征进行了分析.结果表明新疆年降水量空间分布极不均匀,大值区分布主要在天山山区及其两侧;降水集中出现在春末至夏季,其中,7月在全年所占比例最大.新疆及其各分区年降水量与降水量距平百分率均呈显著增加趋势,不同于中国大部分区域同期呈显著减少或无明显线性变化趋势的现象,增加速率与年降水量有关,同时年际波动及阶段性变化明显;四季降水量增加趋势的显著性不如年降水量,空间分布上年和四季降水量均表现为大部分地区呈增加趋势,且增加趋势冬季>夏季>春季>秋季.新疆及天山山区年降水量在1987年发生了突变,北疆在1984年发生了突变,而南疆在1981-1986年期间发生了突变;新疆及北疆年降水量具有3a、6a、8a、11a、18a的波动周期,天山山区存在6a与10a的震荡周期,南疆波动周期为5a、8a、18a,四季降水量也存在不同的波动周期.

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