全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
冰川冻土  2014 

基于CMIP5的东亚地区降雪量变化特征分析

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0161, PP. 1345-1352

Keywords: 东亚,降雪量,年变化与年际变化特征,CMIP5

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

利用JMA的JRA-55降雪量及CMIP5的6个模式模拟的降雪量资料,分析了东亚地区降雪量年变化特征及年际变化特征.结果表明东亚地区降雪量在1958-2004年期间具有明显的年际变化特征及区域分布特征;降雪主要集中在11月至翌年的4月,这6个月中降雪量占年总降雪量的82%;年际变化特征呈现出一种波动变化略有增加的趋势,但是增加的幅度有所不同.从区域分布特征来看,东亚地区降雪主要分布在东北亚、青藏高原及新疆等3个区域.CMIP5的6个模式对东亚区域及其子区域东北亚、青藏高原、新疆1850-2004年降雪量年际变化特征的模拟差异较大.多模式集合预报的结果表现为,在过去155a(1850-2004年)东亚区域降雪量呈现明显减小趋势,东北亚和青藏高原降雪量为波动略有减小趋势,新疆降雪量为明显增加趋势.

References

[1]  Xin Yufei, Bian Lingen. Progress of prediction of the global cryosphere change[J]. Chinese Journal of Polar Research, 2008, 20(3): 275-286. [辛羽飞, 卞林根. 全球冰冻圈变化预测研究现状[J]. 极地研究, 2008, 20(3): 275-286.]
[2]  Li Peiji. Response of Tibetan snow cover to global warming[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1996, 51(3): 260-265. [李培基. 青藏高原对全球变暖的响应[J]. 地理学报, 1996, 51(3): 260-265.]
[3]  Li Peiji. Response of Xinjiang snow cover to climate change[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2001, 59(4): 491-501. [李培基. 新疆降雪对气候变暖的响应[J]. 气象学报, 2001, 59(4): 491-501.]
[4]  Wu Tongwen, Qian Zheng'an, Li Peiji, et al. Some comparative analyses of precipitation over Northwest China drought area after the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau heavy and light snow years[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 1998, 17(4): 364-372. [吴统文, 钱正安, 李培基, 等. 青藏高原多、少雪年后期西北干旱区降水的对比分析[J]. 高原气象, 1998, 17(4): 364-372.]
[5]  Wu Tongwen, Qian Zheng'an. Further analyses of the linkage between winter and spring snow depth anomaly over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and summer rainfall of eastern China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2000, 58(5): 570-581. [吴统文, 钱正安. 青藏高原冬春积雪异常与中国东部地区夏季降水关系的进一步分析[J]. 气象学报, 2000, 58(5): 570-581.]
[6]  Xi Shuang, Zhang Zhifu. Spatial and temporal analysis of snow cover in China in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2013, 31(3): 451-456. [希爽, 张志富. 中国近50 a积雪变化的时空特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2013, 31(3): 451-456.]
[7]  Wei Zhigang. Persistence of the snow anomalies on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2001, 23(3): 225-230. [韦志刚. 青藏高原异常的持续性研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2001, 23(3): 225-230.]
[8]  Zheng Yiqun, Qian Yongfu, Miao Manqian, et al. Effect of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover on China summer monsoon climate[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmosphere Sciences, 2000, 24(6): 761-774. [郑益群, 钱永甫, 苗曼倩, 等. 青藏高原对中国夏季风气候的影响[J]. 大气科学, 2000, 24(6): 761-774.]
[9]  Chen Haishan, Sun Zhaobo. Numerical simulation of the evolution of snow cover and its sensitivity experiments[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2004, 62(3): 269-284. [陈海山, 孙照渤. 积雪季节变化特征的数值模拟及其敏感性试验[J]. 气象学报, 2004, 62(3): 269-284.]
[10]  Wang Chenghai, Wang Zhilan, Shen Yongping. A prediction of snow cover depth in the northern Xinjiang in the next 50 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2010, 32(6): 1059-1065. [王澄海, 王芝兰, 沈永平. 新疆北部地区积雪深度变化特征及未来50 a的预估[J]. 冰川冻土, 2010, 32(6): 1059-1065.]
[11]  Wang Zhilan, Wang Chenghai. Predicting the snow water equivalent over China in the next 40 years based on climate models from IPCC AR4[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(6): 1273-1283. [王芝兰, 王澄海. IPCC AR4多模式对中国地区未来40 a雪水当量的预估[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(6): 1273-1283.]
[12]  Ma Lijuan, Qin Dahe. Spatial-temporal characteristics of observed key parameters for snow cover in China during 1957-2009[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(1): 1-11. [马丽娟, 秦大河. 1957-2009年中国台站观测的关键积雪参数时空变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(1): 1-11.]
[13]  Cao Meisheng. The predicted change trend of snow cover in High-Asia[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1996, 18(S1): 115-122. [曹梅盛. 高亚洲积雪变化趋势预测[J]. 冰川冻土, 1996, 18(S1): 115-122.]
[14]  Qin Dahe. Assessment on Environment Evaluation over Western China[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2002: 2-10. [秦大河. 中国西部环境演变评估综合报告[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2002: 2-10.]
[15]  Liu Yulian, Ren Guoyu, Yu Hongmin, et al. Climate characteristics of intense snowfall in China with its variation[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Sciences, 2013, 24(3): 304-313. [刘玉莲, 任国玉, 于宏敏, 等. 我国强积雪气候特征及其变化[J]. 应用气象学报, 2013, 24(3): 304-313.]
[16]  Shen Yongping, Su Hongchao, Wang Guoya, et al. The response of glaciers and snow cover to climate change in Xinjiang (I): Hydrological effects[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(3): 513-527. [沈永平, 苏宏超, 王国亚, 等. 新疆冰川、积雪对气候变化的响应(I): 水文效应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(3): 513-527.]
[17]  Shen Yongping, Su Hongchao, Wang Guoya, et al. The response of glaciers and snow cover to climate change in Xinjiang (II): Hazards effects[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(6): 1355-1370. [沈永平, 苏宏超, 王国亚, 等. 新疆冰川、积雪对气候变化的响应(II): 灾害效应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(6): 1355-1370.]
[18]  Hua Wenjian, Chen Haishan. Response of land surface processes to global warming and its possible mechanism based on CMIP3 multi-model ensembles[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmosphere Sciences, 2011, 35(1): 121-133. [华文剑, 陈海山. 陆面过程对全球变暖的响应及可能机制: 基于CMIP3的多模式集合分析[J]. 大气科学, 2011, 35(1): 121-133.]
[19]  Wang Chenghai, Wu Yongping, Cui Yang. Evaluating the progress of the CMIP5 and its application prospect in China[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2009, 24(5): 461-468. [王澄海, 吴永萍, 崔洋. CMIP5研究计划的进展及其在中国地区的检验和应用前景[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(5): 461-468.]
[20]  Zhai Yingjia, Li Yaohui, Chen Yuhua. Major progress of global an China regional climate change projection[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2013, 31(4): 803-813. [翟颖佳, 李耀辉, 陈玉华. 全球及中国区域气候变化预估研究主要进展简述[J]. 干旱气象, 2013, 31(4): 803-813.]
[21]  Ross D B, Philip W M. The response of Northern Hemisphere snow cover to a changing climate[J]. Journal of Climate, 2009, 22. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2665.
[22]  Jouni R. Warmer climate: less or more snow?[J]. Climate Dynamic, 2008, 30(3): 307-319.
[23]  Benestad R E. Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32(17). doi:10.1029/2005GL023401.
[24]  Andrew J M, David H B, David P S. Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35(7). doi:10.1029/2007GL032630.
[25]  Zhang Bing, Gong Yuanfa, Xu Ying, et al. Evaluation on the simulation of the drought change in China based on global climate models from CMIP5[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2014, 32(5): 694-700. [张冰, 巩远发, 徐影, 等. CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区干旱变化模拟能力评估[J]. 干旱气象, 2014, 32(5): 694-700.]
[26]  Onogi K, Tsutsui J, Koide H, et al. The JRA-25 reanalysis[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 2007, 85: 369-432.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133