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冰川冻土  2014 

额尔齐斯河流域上游地区近50a来气温和降水变化的DFA分析

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0085, PP. 706-716

Keywords: 去趋势波动分析(DFA),气候变化,极值,额尔齐斯河流域

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Abstract:

为查明新疆境内额尔齐斯河流域年及季节性气温和降水变化规律,并对未来的可能变化趋势做出预测,基于去趋势波动分析法(DFA)对流域近50a来的气温、降水序列的平均值和极端值进行分析.研究表明,年降水及春、夏的降水序列有较好的长程相关性,在较长时间尺度内均有继续保持原有趋势的可能,即年降水继续增加,春、夏降水维持稳定;秋、冬季降水则呈现弱持续性和强随机性,在短时间尺度上保持现状,长时间尺度上则存在改变的可能.年均温及夏、秋、冬温也将继续保持升温的趋势,春季长时间尺度上存在改变的可能.流域内温度和降水都将保持增长的趋势,而且温度的持续上升相对降水具有更高的可能性.由DFA方法确定的极端阈值及相应极值序列显示20世纪80年代以来,极端高温和极端降水事件开始增多,且量值增大,准周期变短,但极端高值并没有显著提高;极端低温事件的发生次数减少显著,平均值增大,同时低温极值增高明显,冬季气温对全球变化的响应更为敏感.

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