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冰川冻土  2014 

叶尔羌河上游不同流域夏季气候和径流变化研究

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0081, PP. 678-684

Keywords: 径流深,气候,Mann-Kendall趋势检验,线性回归,叶尔羌河上游

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Abstract:

叶尔羌河是以冰雪补给为主的河流,径流的变化主要受气温和降水的影响,其中,气温起主导作用.基于1972-2011年近40a的气温降水和径流的实测资料,分析叶尔羌河上游不同流域地区夏季气温、降水、蒸发以及径流的变化特征及相关性.结果表明库鲁克栏杆站夏季降水显著增加,蒸发减少,其余要素没有变化趋势;后20a(1992-2011年)较之前20a(1972-1991年)气温、降水和径流的变化分别为-0.6℃、40%、4%,径流的增加是春季融雪增多、降水增大、蒸发减少和溃决洪水补充的结果.塔什库尔干站夏季各要素均没有变化趋势,后20a较之前20a气温、降水和径流的变化分别为0.4℃、27%、20%,径流的增加主要是由气温增加引起的,降水的增加补充一部分径流.

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